Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jalen Brunson, Scoot Henderson)

Another day, another round of playoff scenarios to look at in the NBA, and I’m using many of them to help guide the NBA Best Bets for tonight’s action. 

There are two guards that I’m targeting in the prop market due to their increased usage, and there is a play-in team worthy of a spread bet given what’s at stake on Thursday night.

This is a shorter slate before two massive days of action on Friday and Sunday, but we can still come away with some key wins. Let’s break down the picks for April 11:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 319-296-13 (+0.18 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 944-854-21 (+40.12 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Jalen Brunson OVER 6.5 Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit
• Scoot Henderson OVER 26.5 Points and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Golden State Warriors -13.5 (-112) vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Jalen Brunson OVER 6.5 Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit

Yes, Jalen Brunson is averaging 38.4 points per game in his last seven matchups, putting up 40 points in back-to-back games, but I’m looking at his passing on Thursday.

Brunson recorded nine dimes in his last game against Boston (the only one without Julius Randle this season), and the C’s have shown that they’ll look to trap and get the ball out of his hands with Derrick White, Brown and Holiday defending him. 

There’s a chance that Boston doesn’t have some of those guys, but I still like Brunson’s assists prop regardless.

The Knicks star has cleared 6.5 dimes in six straight games, and he’s averaging 8.2 assists per game over his last 12, recording at least six dimes in each of those matchups. Brunson has the ball in his hands a ton, as evidenced by his 13.8 potential assists per game in his last 12, so I think this is a very reachable prop even against a tough Boston defense. 

Scoot Henderson OVER 26.5 Points and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit

Over his last five games, Scoot Henderson is averaging 9.8 assists on 18.4 potential assists per game for the Portland Trail Blazers.

With key players like Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant and others out in this game, Scoot is going to get all the work he can handle on the offensive end. 

That’s where the scoring aspect of this prop comes in. Since March 18 (12 games), Henderson has started every game for the Blazers and is averaging 18.0 points per game (41.0 percent from the field) on 16.3 shots per game. 

That volume saw an uptick in his last game when he posted 19 points and 15 dimes on 18 shots in over 40 minutes of action. Even though this game is likely going to end in a loss for Portland, Henderson should get the chance to put up some major numbers. 

Golden State Warriors -13.5 (-112) vs. Portland Trail Blazers

The Golden State Warriors are a must bet in this spot against Portland for multiple reasons.

First off, the team is playing some of its best basketball of the season, ranking sixth in offensive rating, fifth in defensive rating and sixth in net rating over its last 10 games. 

Now, it gets a Portland team that has nothing to play for but the No. 1 pick on Thursday and has already ruled out several key players as I mentioned in our Scoot prop. 

The Warriors are elite as road favorites, going 15-5 against the spread – the second-best mark in the NBA. 

Given what’s at stake for the Warriors (a real shot at the No. 8 seed), I don’t expect them to take this game lightly. 

After struggling on the road last season, Golden State has flipped the script to become one of the best road teams in the NBA this season. Trust this veteran team to keep things rolling with the playoff on its mind. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.