Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jaren Jackson Jr., Julius Randle)

The NBA action on Monday, Dec. 18 is littered with star matchups, including an early MVP showdown between Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic.

I'm eyeing four different NBA bets tonight (one is a small, small sprinkle) as we look to head into Christmas Day on a high note. I've been adding a few bets live at times this season, so make sure to follow my BetStamp (@peter2dewey) and Twitter/X (@peterdewey2) to get my live updates on plays.

There are two player props that I absolutely love on Monday night, and a spread pick for an Eastern Conference contender. Let's break them down!

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 89-77-3 (+0.77 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 714-635-12 (+40.72 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Julius Randle OVER 22.5 Points (-150)
• Jaren Jackson Jr. UNDER 33.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
• Miami Heat +2 (-112) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
• Detroit Pistons Moneyline (+470) vs. Atlanta Hawks – 0.2 units

Julius Randle OVER 22.5 Points (-150)

Julius Randle thrives against the Los Angeles Lakers (the team that drafted him) in his career, and he’s got a rather low points prop for the New York Knicks’ game on Monday.

The two-time All-NBA selection averages 25.1 points, 9.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists in 12 games against Los Angeles, clearing this prop in five of his last six games against L.A. 

Randle has been shooting the ball better since his slow start to the season, clearing 22.5 points in seven of his last 10 games and pushing his season-long field goal percentage to 46 percent. He’s worth a bet at this discounted number. 

Jaren Jackson Jr. UNDER 33.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)

I’m fading Jaren Jackson Jr. in this prop even though he has two 40-plus point games in his last three. 

On the season, JJJ has cleared 33.5 PRA just seven times in 24 games. The thing in common with those matchups? He’s scored at least 27 points in every game that he’s cleared this number. 

While the Memphis Grizzlies big man is averaging 21.8 points per game, he’s only scored 27 or more eight times – meaning he still failed to go over this in a game where he had 27 points. 

JJJ is not as great of a rebounder as some think (5.7 rebounds per game) and he’s averaging just 1.8 assists per game on the season. Go UNDER. 

Miami Heat +2 (-112) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

I love this spot for the Miami Heat, who are at home as underdogs against the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The Wolves are one of the better teams in the NBA right now, ranking No. 1 in defensive rating, but the team has to face a full strength Heat team with Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo listed as available for tonight’s game. 

Minnesota is just 4-4 against the spread as a road favorite, and I question if this team would have even been favored had Herro and Adebayo gotten one healthy game under them before this matchup. 

I’ll take a shot on Miami at home. 

Detroit Pistons Moneyline (+470) vs. Atlanta Hawks – 0.2 units

Call me crazy, it’s fair. 

But if the Detroit Pistons are going to avoid setting the consecutive loss record, it’s tonight. 

Atlanta comes into this game 0-6 against the spread as a home favorite and just 3-7 at home. Plus, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter are all questionable. 

The Pistons stink – there’s no way around that – but at +470 I’m going to sprinkle just a little on this one. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.