Injuries are the name of the game on Monday in the NBA, as Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler and Damian Lillard have all been ruled out of their respective games.
Plus, the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns are both playing the second night of a back-to-back, and I wouldn't be shocked to see players ruled out in that matchup as well.
So, I have four picks for the six games tonight, but they are all half-unit plays. I don't love risking a ton with injury variance involved, and to be fair, this is one of my least favorite betting slates of the season.
Still, I'm confident in all four picks today, which feature props on three All-Star players and a spread pick for the best ATS team in the NBA.
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Let's break down the plays for Monday night's action:
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 135-115-6 (+2.81 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 760-673-15 (+42.75 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
- Devin Booker UNDER 4.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit
- Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 (-112) vs. Washington Wizards – 0.5 unit
- Jaylen Brown OVER 3.5 Assists (-150) – 0.5 unit
- Tyrese Haliburton OVER 11.5 Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
Devin Booker UNDER 4.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit
Suns guard Devin Booker did not grab a single rebound in the Suns’ loss to Memphis on Sunday (one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA) and he’s failed to grab more than four boards in 10 of his last 12 games.
On the season, Booker is averaging 5.0 rebounds per game, but that number has dipped to 3.6 per game over that 12-game stretch. He’s a must fade for me tonight.
The Clippers rank inside the top 10 in the NBA in rebounding percentage. Booker isn’t going to have a big game on the glass given his recent form.
Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 (-112) vs. Washington Wizards – 0.5 unit
This matchup lines up about as nice as it could for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are due for a bounce-back showing after poor performances against Brooklyn and Atlanta where they got behind big early and ended up losing outright as favorites.
OKC is the best team in the NBA against the spread, although the Thunder are just 3-3 ATS as road favorites
The bright side? They’re taking on a Washington team that is one of the worst in the NBA as a home underdog, going just 4-9 ATS.
The Wizards rank 27th in the NBA in net rating, and they have struggled mightily as of late, losing four in a row and eight of their last 10 games.
While the Thunder haven’t been dominant on the road, they are still a trustworthy team to bet on given their season-long record, and the team is No. 4 in the NBA in offensive rating.
That’s going to give Washington (the worst defensive rated team in the NBA) fits, and I don’t trust this Wizards offense to keep up.
Jaylen Brown OVER 3.5 Assists (-150) – 0.5 unit
Jayson Tatum is out, so enter Jaylen Brown the playmaker.
Brown recorded six assists in each of the games he’s played without Tatum this season, and he’s still been a solid passer overall, averaging 3.6 dimes per game in the 2023-24 campaign.
I expect Brown to get more chances to initiate the offense against the Indiana Pacers, who play at the fastest pace in the NBA and rank just 26th in the league in defensive rating. With plenty of possessions to go around, Brown should clear this number.
Tyrese Haliburton OVER 11.5 Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
Sticking with the Boston Celtics-Indiana Pacers matchup, we have a buy-low spot on Tyrese Haliburton.
Haliburton is averaging 12.7 assists per game in the No. 1 offense in the NBA, and now he gets a shorthanded Boston team on Monday.
The Celtics held Hali to just seven dimes on Saturday night, but the All-Star guard has eight games since Dec. 1 with 12 or more assists. In fact, he is averaging 13.5 assists per game over his last 16 games.
I’ll take a shot on him to get back to his usual assist numbers after arguably his worst passng game of the season.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.