Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jaylen Brown, Khris Middleton)

With just two games in the NBA on Thursday night, but that doesn’t mean we’ll have a shortage in bets. 

There are three players that I’m targeting in the prop market, and a Boston Celtics pick that has hit at the best rate in the NBA so far this season. 

Let’s make the most of tonight’s short slate!

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 298-276-13 (+0.87 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 923-834-21 (+40.82 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Jaylen Brown OVER 21.5 Points (-140) – 0.5 unit
• Derrick White OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Boston Celtics 1H Spread -10 (-105) vs. Atlanta Hawks – 0.5 unit
• Khris Middleton OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit

Jaylen Brown OVER 21.5 Points (-140) – 0.5 unit

This is an interesting number for Jaylen Brown, who is averaging 23.4 points per game on the season and has scored 22 or more points in 11 of 14 games since the All-Star break. 

In all three games that he missed this total, Brown scored 21 points, so we know he’s going to be around this number. Plus, he’s averaging 28.4 points per game over that stretch. 

I am worried about a potential blowout here, but Brown is going to get his shots – at least 15 attempts in 12 of his last 14 games – regardless of the outcomes.  

Derrick White OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit

I love taking Derrick White’s rebounds and assists prop tonight, especially since he’s averaging 5.6 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game since the All-Star break. 

White has cleared this total in 11 of his 15 games since then. 

There’s a chance that Jrue Holiday (questionable) misses this game again, which would thrust White into a primary playmaker role again. If that’s the case, he’s a great bet in this prop. 

Boston Celtics 1H Spread -10 (-105) vs. Atlanta Hawks – 0.5 unit

Prior to Monday’s debacle, Boston had covered the spread as a road favorite in six straight games, but I’m not completely sold on the team covering this number, even with Atlanta on the second night of a back-to-back. 

But that doesn’t mean we aren’t backing the Celtics in some way. 

Sure, Atlanta is just 4-8 against the spread in the second night of back-to-backs this season and 3-7 ATS as a home underdog, but I think the play is in the first half in this game. 

According to EV Analytics, Boston is 53-18-1 against the spread in the first half this season, by far the best mark in the NBA. It makes sense since Boston has an average first-half scoring margin of plus-8.3 ponts. The next closest team? New Orleans at plus-5.6. 

Atlanta, on the other hand, is 37-34 against the spread in the first half this season, which isn’t a bad mark, but it’s far from where Boston is. The C’s led by 18 points at half on Monday, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them get off to a fast start against an Atlanta team that is going to be a little tired on the second night of a back-to-back. 

Khris Middleton OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit

Since coming back from an ankle injury, Khris Middleton has cleared this prop in three of four games, putting up 10, 12, 20, 13 assists and rebounds in those games. 

Middleton is averaging 4.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game, but those numbers have jumped to 6.3 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game since returning. 

I’m not sure Middleton keeps up that pace, but this prop should be set around 11.5 or 12.5 given his recent play. Take advantage of the lower line tonight. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.