Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell)

There are a ton of playoff implications on the line on Wednesday night in the NBA, and I’m targeting three games that have teams either in the playoffs – or fighting for a spot – in my best bets. 

At this point in the season, there is a lot of volatility with some of the league’s worst teams, as they have nothing to play for, so how can we use the playoff race to our advantage in the prop market?

Stars like Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell are among my favorite prop targets tonight, plus I think there is an Eastern Conference team that could be worth a wager as a road underdog. 

Let’s dive into Wednesday’s wagers!

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 308-286-13 (+0.32 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 933-844-21 (+40.26 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Jayson Tatum OVER 25.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Orlando Magic +4 (-105) vs. New Orleans Pelicans – 0.5 unit
• Donovan Mitchell UNDER 31.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit

Jayson Tatum OVER 25.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Since March 1, Jayson Tatum is averaging 28.1 points per game while shooting 47.0 percent from the field and 45.4 percent from 3-point range.

He’s playing some of his best basketball of the season, clearing 25.5 points in 12 of his last 15 games, landing on exactly 26 points on four occasions. So this is a great line from oddsmakers, but I still like Tatum here.  

We may finally see Tatum in a close game, as the Oklahoma City Thunder beat Boston earlier this season. In that game, Tatum had 30 points on 10-of-21 shooting, and he played nearly 38 minutes in the contest. 

If the All-Star forward can get usage like that tonight, I love him to clear this number. 

Orlando Magic +4 (-105) vs. New Orleans Pelicans – 0.5 unit

Orlando has the fourth-best record against the spread on the road this season (22-14), and the team could be in a spot to pull off an upset against a New Orleans team that doesn’t have Brandon Ingram again on Wednesday. 

The Pelicans suffered a bad loss to the Phoenix Suns their last time out, and the team is in danger of falling into the play-in tournament field in the Western Conference. 

New Orleans lost by 15 to this Magic team in Orlando, and it is just 14th in the league in net rating over its last 10 games. 

The Magic? Well, they rank No. 2 in the NBA in that category. 

I think this game should be a little closer to a pick’em, so I’ll take the points with Orlando since New Orleans isn’t at full strength tonight. 

Donovan Mitchell UNDER 31.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit

I’m fading Donovan Mitchell here, as he’s not looked the same since returning to the lineup (for a second time) from a knee injury. 

The All-Star guard is averaging just 13.0 points, 2.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game since injuring his knee (four games), and he’s failed to clear this line in all four games. 

Mitchell is shooting just 29.6 percent from the field over that stretch, and even though the Cleveland Cavaliers gave him the night off on Tuesday, I’m not sold on him having a massive game against Phoenix in what should be a playoff atmosphere. 

Take the UNDER on Mitchell until we see him return to his usual form.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.