Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jayson Tatum, Evan Mobley and More)

Both the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics can take commanding leads in the NBA playoffs tonight, but they won’t have it easy – especially Dallas, who is favored by just 1.5 points in Game 4. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder aren’t getting a bet on a side from me – I’m focusing on props tonight – but that doesn’t mean they can’t pull off wins. 

There’s a chance that both of these series end up at 2-2 through Game 4, something we’ve already seen in both the Indiana Pacers-New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets-Minnesota Timberwolves matchups. 

Here’s how I’m betting on the Game 4 action on Monday night:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 354-359-13 (-5.29 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 979-917-21 (+34.64 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Boston Celtics First Half -5 (-110) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
• Evan Mobley OVER 15.5 Points (+102)
• Jayson Tatum OVER 15.5 Rebounds and Assists (-112)
• Isaiah Joe OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-108)

Boston Celtics First Half -5 (-110) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

After failing to cover in the first half in their Game 2 loss to the Cavs, the Celtics bounced back with a first-half cover and a massive road win in Game 3.

In three road games this postseason, Boston has covered the spread in the first half every time, doing it rather easily as well. 

On the season, Boston is 62-27-1 against the spread in the first half – by far the best mark in the NBA – and it showed that when it doesn’t shoot 8-for-35 from 3, it is a far better team than the Cavs.

Plus, Cleveland is banged up with Donovan Mitchell now joining Jarrett Allen on the injury report in this game due to a calf injury.

I’d expect Mitchell to play, but he’s carried the Cavs’ offense this entire postseason. If he can’t do that, Boston should roll early on when it has its normal rotations in the game. 

Evan Mobley OVER 15.5 Points (+102)

Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley has been the most reliable option after Mitchell in the team’s offense, scoring 17, 21 and 17 points in his three games in this series. 

Mobley usually has the size advantage down low since Kristaps Porzingis is out for Boston, and he’s shot 63.2 percent from the field – taking at least 11 shots in every game – in this series.

If Mitchell is limited, I’d expect Darius Garland and Mobley both to see a jump in usage, but Mobley has been by far the more consistent player. 

I love getting him at plus money to clear this points total for the fourth straight game. 

Jayson Tatum OVER 15.5 Rebounds and Assists (-112)

Jayson Tatum finally had a big game for Boston in Game 3, but he’s still shooting just 41.3 percent from the field in the playoffs this season. 

That hasn’t stopped Tatum from making an impact on the glass and as a passer, as he’s averaging 10.4 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game in the playoffs. 

Over the course of eight postseason games, Tatum has cleared 15.5 rebounds and assists five times, including twice in this series with Porzingis out. 

If the Cavs can keep this game relatively close, Tatum should see close to 40 minutes, giving him plenty of time to rack up the numbers on Monday.  

Isaiah Joe OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-108)

If there’s a player that may replace Giddey in the rotation, it could be sharpshooter Isaiah Joe, who made three of his four shots from 3-point range in Game 3 and has at least two shots made from 3 in four of his last six games. 

Joe saw nearly 20 minutes of action in each of his last two games, and he could be the ideal floor spacer that the Thunder need to maximize their offense. 

I think he’s worth a shot in this prop, especially if he keeps getting up three or more shots from 3 per game (he’s taken three plus in five straight).

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.