Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Joel Embiid, Wemby, Jalen Williams)
By Peter Dewey
There are just six games in the NBA on Tuesday night, but it's one of the biggest prop nights of the season in my NBA best bets column.
I have seven different plays for the action on Tuesday, including six prop bets -- many of which are half-unit plays. I'm a huge fan of several picks on this slate, including plays for stars like Joel Embiid, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Victor Wembanyama.
Plus, there are a couple of young guns that are undervalued in my eyes by oddsmakers tonight.
Let's keep 2024 rolling with a big day!
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 119-102-6 (+0.37 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 744-660-15 (+40.32 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Joel Embiid OVER 34.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 units
- Victor Wembanyama OVER 17.5 Points (-105)
- Jalen Williams OVER 24.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 5.5 Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit
- New Orleans Pelicans -6 (-105) vs. Brooklyn Nets
- Brandin Podziemski OVER 8.5 Points (-130) – 0.5 unit
- Brandin Podziemski OVER 17.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit
Joel Embiid OVER 34.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 units
This prop is too enticing not to take for Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid against a Chicago Bulls team that won’t have starting center Nikola Vucevic on Tuesday.
The Bulls have been playing a lot of small ball, something that Embiid should easily beat, and he already put up 40 points in his lone meeting against the Bulls this season.
Embiid has 35 or more points in eight of 11 games since Nov. 25. He’s averaging 35.0 per game on the season. I love him to get there again tonight.
Victor Wembanyama OVER 17.5 Points (-105)
There’s a little value on Victor Wembanyama, who has still taken a ton of shots despite his minutes decreasing since he suffered an ankle injury.
Zach Collins is out tonight, and Wemby had 21 points on 16 shots in just 23:42 in his last game with Collins sidelined.
Not only that, but Wembanyama has taken at least 14 shots in three straight games despite seeing his minutes cut. If he plays closer to 25-28 minutes, the rookie should easily clear this total against a Memphis team that lacks the size to deal with him in the painted area.
Jalen Williams OVER 24.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit
Jalen Williams deserves some more respect for the season he’s putting together, as he’s pushing a 50/40/90 campaign.
On the season, Williams is averaging 18.0 points, 3.9 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game while shooting 41.6 percent from 3-point range.
He’s cleared 24.5 PRA in five straight games for the Thunder, and he’s done it 15 times this season.
Williams isn’t going to put up a triple-double (he hasn’t all season), but he does stuff the stat sheet for OKC and is more than capable of a 20-point night. I like him to go OVER in what should be a close game with Boston on Tuesday.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 5.5 Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit
Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are likely going to be shadowing SGA all night, I think he could be more of a passer than normal against Boston. Even still, the All-NBA guard has been great moving the rock this season.
The Thunder superstar has cleared 5.5 dimes 18 times in 30 games this season, and he’s averaging 6.3 assists per game.
Boston does allow the third-fewest assists per game in the NBA, but SGA has the ball in his hands so much that he could still clear this prop if the Celtics try to take him away as a scorer.
New Orleans Pelicans -6 (-105) vs. Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn opened the season as one of the best teams in the NBA against the spread, but the team has slipped in recent weeks.
The Nets are now just:
- 18-14-1 ATS overall
- 6-6 ATS as a road underdog
- 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games
That sets up well for New Orleans to pick up a cover at home, where the team is 11-7 straight up but just 6-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Brooklyn comes into this game just 20th in the NBA in net rating, and the Pelicans are much better in that department, ranking No. 8 in the NBA.
With Brooklyn’s defense (24th in the league in defensive rating) ranking below average, I expect New Orleans’ Big 3 to take advantage at Smoothie King Center.
Brandin Podziemski OVER 8.5 Points (-130) – 0.5 unit
I am shocked to see Brandin Podziemski’s prop numbers so low – so why not make two plays for him tonight?
Since entering the starting lineup, the rookie guard had scored over 10 points in all but two games. He came off the bench in Golden State’s last game, but the rookie still played 28:52, finishing with 13 points.
Podziemski is seeing a solid dosage of shots (at least eight in nine of his last 11 games), so I don’t mind him at this discounted number.
Brandin Podziemski OVER 17.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit
Since I like his OVER for points, why not take the PRA prop for Podz tonight as well.
Podziemski has 18 or more PRA in 11 games since Nov. 30 when he truly cracked the rotation.
He’s going to fill up the stat sheet, averaging 6.9 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game over that stretch.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.