Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jokic vs. Embiid, Domantas Sabonis)
By Peter Dewey
The matchup we've all been waiting for -- Nikola Jokic vs. Joel Embiid -- takes place on Tuesday night in primetime.
It's one of three NBA games in action tonight, and I have five plays (three half-unit looks) for the matchups on Jan. 16.
That includes a parlay that features both Jokic and Embiid, as well as picks for Devin Booker, Domantas Sabonis and two spread picks for the Western Conference matchups tonight.
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 151-135-6 (-2.86 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 776-693-15 (+37.08 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Nikola Jokic-Joel Embiid Rebound Parlay (+106)
- Devin Booker UNDER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-115)
- Sacramento Kings +4.5 (-112) vs. Phoenix Suns – 0.5 unit
- Oklahoma City Thunder +7 (-108) vs. Los Angeles Clippers – 0.5 unit
- Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+250) – 0.5 unit
Nikola Jokic-Joel Embiid Rebound Parlay (+106)
A little parlay for the MVP matchup tonight? I love this play for both bigs, and wouldn’t mind small wagers on their individual rebound props. But, I like bringing this down to 10 given how many times each player has hit that mark this season.
Nikola Jokic 10+ Rebounds
In 40 games this season, Jokic has grabbed at least 10 boards in 31 of them, hitting this in over 75 percent of his games.
He's averaging 11.8 rebounds per game this season, but has only grabbed 10.5 rebounds per game in his two meetings with Embiid since 2022, hence why I like 10+ instead of his 10.5 rebound prop. (He’s grabbed 10 or more boards in both games vs. Embiid).
On the season, Jokic is averaging 18.6 rebound chances per game, and the Sixers rank 18th in the NBA in opponent rebounds allowed per game. He should get to double digits tonight.
Joel Embiid 10+ Rebounds
Embiid has grabbed 10 or more rebounds in 24 of his 28 games this season, including 16 straight.
The reigning league MVP is averaging 11.7 rebounds per game on the season, clearing 10.5 boards in 20 of his 28 outings this season.
Not only that, but Embiid is actually averaging more rebounding chances per game than Jokic (19.4) this season. Only Domantas Sabonis, Rudy Gobert and Anthony Davis average more.
I love him in this parlay to get to double-digit boards.
Devin Booker UNDER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-115)
Devin Booker has been a fade candidate for me in rebounding props, but he’s failed to clear this combined assist and rebounds prop in 11 of his last 15 games.
Plus, his chances for both rebounds and assists are taking a hit with the Suns Big 3 all healthy. Here’s how:
Devin Booker assist chances per game
- Season average: 13.6
- Last 15 games: 12.7
- Last 10 games: 10.3
- Last 5 games: 9.2
Booker is seeing nearly 4.5 fewer chances to pick up an assist over his last five games, three of which have been played with both Durant and Beal in the lineup.
Devin Booker rebound chances per game
- Season average: 9.4
- Last 15 games: 7.4
- Last 10 games: 8.0
- Last 5 games: 8.5
While Booker’s rebounding chances have gone up as of late, he’s still down based on his season’s average.
Over his last 15 games, Booker is averaging just 7.1 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game. He’s a must-fade for me in this prop.
Sacramento Kings +4.5 (-112) vs. Phoenix Suns – 0.5 unit
The Kings have played eight games as a road dog this season, and they are an impressive 6-2 against the spread in those matchups.
Even though they’ve been on a brutal stretch of road games, I like them to cover here against a Suns team that has struggled at times as a favorite.
Phoenix is just 6-12 against the spread as a home favorite, and even with Beal, Booker and Durant healthy, the team has covered in just one of its last four games.
The Kings have the offensive firepower to keep up with this Suns team, and these teams are No. 15 and 16 in the NBA in defensive rating. I’ll gladly take the points in this matchup.
Oklahoma City Thunder +7 (-108) vs. Los Angeles Clippers – 0.5 unit
This is only a half-unit play since we still don’t know if the Oklahoma City Thunder will be sitting anyone – like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – on the second night of a back-to-back.
SGA was a game-time decision on Monday.
Still, OKC is a league best 4-1 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this season. The team is also 6-2-1 ATS as a road dog.
The Clippers are currently 11-8 as home favorites, but this is a bigger number than I’d expect for them to be asked to cover against an OKC team that is No. 4 in offensive rating, No. 5 in defensive rating and No. 2 in net rating this season.
It’s also worth noting that as favorites of 6.5 or more points at home this season, the Clippers are just 4-6 against the spread.
I’ll take a shot on OKC’s full team suiting up on Tuesday, which would certainly shrink this number.
Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+250) – 0.5 unit
Domantas Sabonis is playing some of the best basketball of his career, recording five triple-doubles since New Year’s Eve.
Dating back to Dec. 26 (11 games), Sabonis is averaging 23.1 points, 14.1 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game for the Kings.
The All-Star big man has 10 triple-doubles on the season. I think we’re getting decent value on him at +250 considering he’s recorded one in five of his last nine games.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.