Happy February, NBA fans!
The month of the All-Star break is upon us in the NBA, and I could not be happier after January was one of the roughest betting months I've had in any NBA season.
Despite that, we closed the month strong on Tuesday and Wednesday, going 4-0-1 in our picks (the push being a voided Zion Williamson bet yesterday) to inch us closer to in the green on the season.
Thursday's slate features four matchups, including a rivalry meeting between the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers. Plus, the New York Knicks put their eight-game winning streak to the test at home, where they have been one of the best teams in the NBA against the spread.
I'm back with three plays for today, one player prop, one first quarter play and a full-game spread pick in the late window.
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 186-175-8 (-5.22 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 811-733-17 (+34.72 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
- Josh Hart OVER 13.5 Rebounds and Assists (-120)
- New York Knicks 1Q Moneyline (-130) vs. Indiana Pacers
- Utah Jazz -4.5 (-112) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Josh Hart OVER 13.5 Rebounds and Assists (-120)
Josh Hart had a triple-double in the New York Knicks’ win over the Utah Jazz, and he’s been a stat-sheet stuffer with Julius Randle out the last two games.
Hart has compiled 19 and 20 rebounds and assists in those contests, and he’s actually cleared this prop in three straight games despite playing one of them in a bench role.
One of the best rebounders in the NBA – especially for his size – Hart has to play more of the power forward with Randle out, and he should see a massive workload if OG Anunoby is ruled out again on Thursday.
On the season, Hart is averaging 6.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. As a starter (eight games) he’s averaging 9.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. Only two of those starts have come without Randle dominating the glass (and the ball on offense).
This is my favorite prop of the night against a Pacers team that ranks 23rd in the NBA in rebounding percentage.
New York Knicks 1Q Moneyline (-130) vs. Indiana Pacers
I love this play for the Knicks, as they are the No. 5 team in net rating in the first quarter this season.
Indiana, on the other hand, ranks 19th in the NBA in first quarter net rating.
Even with the Knicks down a few key players, I think this is a great matchup for them, as Jalen Brunson has played a ton of minutes in the first quarter since Julius Randle went down.
Indiana really struggles early on in games on the road, posting the No. 26 net rating in the first quarter on the road at -12.2. The Knicks at home? Well, they’re at +9.4.
Given the Knicks’ improved defense since 2024 started (No. 1 in the league), I like them to get off to a hot start at home tonight.
Utah Jazz -4.5 (-112) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
This is my favorite spread pick of the night, as Joel Embiid has already been ruled out for the Philadelphia 76ers and Tyrese Maxey is questionable.
Utah’s defense was awful on its six-game road trip, but the Jazz are a different team at home, going 6-1 against the spread as home favorites (an NBA-best mark), 16-5 ATS at home overall (also best in the league) and 15-6 straight up.
Meanwhile, Philly is just 3-9 straight up when Embiid doesn’t play and 4-5 against the spread overall as a road underdog. The Sixers won’t have Embiid, De’Anthony Melton or Robert Cobvington tonight, and they could be down Nic Batum (questionable) as well.
This is a rather small price to lay with the Jazz against a Sixers team that simply isn’t the same without the reigning league MVP. Remember, Philly lost outright to Portland without Embiid just a few nights ago.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.