Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Kevin Durant, Chris Paul)

Looking for some NBA best on Monday night?

You're in the right place, as we're closing in on 550 NBA bets placed this season, and we've gotten back into the green over this past month.

There are five plays that I'm eyeing on Monday, including a couple of veteran players that may be undervalued in their respective contests.

Let's talk some ball for Monday's action:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 267-248-12 (+0.49 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 892-806-20 (+40.44 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Kevin Durant OVER 25.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Phoenix Suns -6.5 (-105) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 0.5 unit
• Dallas Mavericks -4 (-110) vs. Chicago Bulls – 0.5 unit
• Chris Paul OVER 8.5 Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit
• Immanuel Quickley OVER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit

Kevin Durant OVER 25.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Even with Devin Booker (probable) expected to return for the Phoenix Suns, this is a steal for Kevin Durant on Monday night. 

KD had 45 points in a loss to Boston in his last game, and he’s averaging 28.3 points per game on the season. The Suns forward has cleared this total in four of his last five games, and he could still be the No. 1 option if the team tries to ease Booker back into action tonight. 

Durant has seen a ton of volume as of late, taking at least 19 shots in eight of his last nine games. Go OVER for him tonight. 

Phoenix Suns -6.5 (-105) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 0.5 unit

This is a tough matchup for the Cleveland Cavaliers especially with Evan Mobley, Max Strus and Donovan Mitchell out in this game. 

Cleveland is coming off a bad loss at home to the Brooklyn Nets, and the team is now playing the second night of a back-to-back, a spot where it is just 3-7-1 against the spread on the season. 

Let’s not be mistaken, the Phoenix Suns have not been great as road favorites (7-10-1 against the spread), but the team should get Booker back in this one. 

The Suns have a lot more firepower than this Cavs team that also will be down Dean Wade, meaning three starters – and four rotation pieces – will be sitting for Cleveland tonight. 

The Cavs have come back to earth a bit after a great start to 2024, winning just five of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Suns could finally have their Big 3 back in business, where they are clearly the best version of themselves. 

Dallas Mavericks -4 (-110) vs. Chicago Bulls – 0.5 unit

There are a couple of trends that are interesting in this game, and one of them is going to have to prevail over the other. 

• Dallas is a league-best 13-3 against the spread as a road favorite this season.
• Chicago is an impressive 8-5-1 against the spread as a home underdog this season.

So, which trend should we back tonight? 

While the Bulls have been good at home, they’re just 1-2 ATS as home dogs since the All-Star break, and they also have an outright loss at home to the Detroit Pistons as a home favorite. 

Doncic is playing some of the best basketball he’s played all season (which is crazy to think about), and Dallas enters this matchup on a two-game winning streak. 

While the Bulls are hovering around .500, they still rank 20th in the NBA in net rating this season. I simply can’t back this team as a short underdog against one of the best road teams in the league. 

Chris Paul OVER 8.5 Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit

The veteran point guard got the start for Steph Curry on Saturday, and he promptly responded with a nine-assist game. 

So, I’m going to bet that Chris Paul will do that again on Monday against a Spurs team that ranks 24th in the NBA in opponent assists allowed per game this season. 

CP3 has a pair of nine-dime games since he returned to the lineup, and he’s averaging 14.5 potential assists per game in his last five games, including 17.0 potential assists in the loss to the Spurs on Saturday. 

That volume is huge for Paul, and I expect him to command the offense once again with Steph out. 

Immanuel Quickley OVER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit

This prop did not hit in Immanuel Quickley’s last game, as he finished with 10 rebounds and assists, but he had cleared it in five straight games before that. 

Over his last six contests, Quickley is averaging 10.5 assists and 6.0 rebounds per game. He’s picked up at least seven dimes in every one of those games and at least five rebounds in five of those six matchups. 

Quickley should be in line for a lot of minutes for Toronto given the team’s injuries, and he’s proven to be a stat-sheet stuffer since Scottie Barnes went out with a fractured hand. 

The other key in this prop: Quickley is averaging 16.2 potential assists and 9.2 rebound chances over this six-game stretch. He should have another big game tonight. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.