Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Kevin Durant, Knicks and Lakers)

Friday night’s NBA action features a massive slate of 12 games, with several playoff scenarios on the line, especially in the Western Conference. 

The Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas Mavericks, Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets are all battling for positioning in the play-in tournament, with the No. 6 seed in each for several squads. 

I have a few picks involving those teams, as well as a pick for the New York Knicks that has hit in 10 of 14 games in that spot. 

Let’s talk some ball for Friday night:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 300-278-13 (+0.80 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 925-836-21 (+40.75 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• New York Knicks -9 (-110) vs. San Antonio Spurs – 0.5 unit
• John Collins OVER 14.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Los Angeles Lakers +4 (-110) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit
• Kevin Durant OVER 23.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

New York Knicks -9 (-110) vs. San Antonio Spurs – 0.5 unit

If there’s one place to bet on the Knicks, it’s when they’re road favorites. 

New York is 10-3-1 against the spread in that spot this season, dominating the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night.

The San Antonio Spurs could be down Keldon Johnson – a key player for their offensive success (15.8 points per game) – which would make things tough against a Knicks team that is No. 1 in the league in defensive rating over its last 10 games. 

All season long, the Knicks have dominated the team’s they’re supposed to beat, going 26-2 straight up against teams under .500. 

San Antonio is also just 14-16 against the spread as a home underdog. I have to take the Knicks to cover this number tonight. 

John Collins OVER 14.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

John Collins has cleared 14.5 points in 10 of his last 12 games, averaging 18.1 points on just 11.6 shots per game. 

The Jazz forward has seen his minutes get cut a bit, but he scored 25 points in less than 20 minutes in the team's game against Houston on March 23. 

If the Jazz can hang around, Collins is going to play more minutes, and regardless he’s gone over this prop in every game since March 20. Houston’s defense on the interior is a little weaker right now without Tari Eason and Alperen Sengun. 

Los Angeles Lakers +4 (-110) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit

The Los Angeles Lakers are playing some of their best basketball of the season, winning five straight games to pull within 2.5 games of the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. 

The Indiana Pacers have been solid all season, especially on offense, but they are just 10-13-1 against the spread when favored at home. 

I’m worried about the Pacers covering this number – and frankly winning outright – if LeBron James and Anthony Davis (both questionable) suit up tonight. The Lakers beat Indiana in Los Angeles on March 24, and I wouldn't be shocked to see the team pull off an upset here. 

Over the last 10 games, the Lakers are the No. 4 offense in the league, a sign that they can compete with the fast-paced Indiana attack. 

Kevin Durant OVER 23.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Phoenix Suns superstar Kevin Durant is trying to will the team into the No. 6 seed, scoring 25 or more points in three straight games. 

I’m shocked to see his prop this low against the Oklahoma City Thunder, as he’s scored 28 and 20 points in two meetings with OKC this season. 

The Suns have a real chance to win this game with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander listed as doubtful for the Thunder, and I think Durant’s usage will stay up – he’s taken 16 or more shots (making at least 12) in each of his last three games. 

Durant is averaging 27.6 points per game this season, so this is a huge steal in terms of the prop number tonight.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.