Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Lakers-Pelicans, Warriors-Kings)

We finally have postseason basketball!

The NBA’s Play-In Tournament begins on Tuesday night in the Western Conference with the Golden State Warriors facing the Sacramento Kings in the No. 10 vs. No. 9 seed game and the Los Angeles Lakers (No. 8) take on the New Orleans Pelicans (No. 7) for the No. 7 seed earlier in the night. 

Usually, my NBA best bets are filled with player props, but I’m actually going to a side and a total for the games tonight. 

Here’s how the West play-in shakes out on Tuesday: 

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 323-300-13 (-0.11 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 948-858-21 (+39.83 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Golden State Warriors Moneyline (-142) vs. Sacramento Kings
• Los Angeles Lakers-New Orleans Pelicans OVER 224.5 (-112) – 0.5 unit

Golden State Warriors Moneyline (-142) vs. Sacramento Kings

I have to take Golden State to win this game, especially since the Warriors have thrived as road favorites all season long.

Only the Dallas Mavericks (19-4 ATS as road favorites) have a better against the spread record when favored away from home than Golden State (15-6) this season. 

Plus, the Kings just haven’t been the same team since Malik Monk went down, going 4-6 without him this season. 

These teams both have a ton of offensive talent, but the playoff experience of Golden State wore the Kings down last season, and I think the same happens on Tuesday night.

Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and others are built for playoff basketball, and the Kings have really struggled at home, going just 18-23 against the spread during the regular season. 

I’ll lay the points with the Warriors to keep their season alive. 

Los Angeles Lakers-New Orleans Pelicans OVER 224.5 (-112) – 0.5 unit

Oddsmakers have set the total in this game to 223.5 points, but the Lakers and Pelicans have combined for 222, 238, 261 and 232 points in their four meetings this season. 

The lowest-scoring game came in the In-Season Tournament when Los Angeles beat New Orleans by 44 points. 

I lean with this matchup going OVER the projected total, even though the Pelicans rank No. 6 in the league in defensive rating this season. The Lakers are the best OVER team in the NBA (47-35-1), including an insane 26-14 to the OVER when on the road. 

While Los Angeles’ two previous play-in tournament games both finished in the low 200s, I think this matchup is conducive to a higher-scoring game after watching the Lakers dominate in a playoff environment on Sunday. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.