Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid)
By Peter Dewey
The postseason has been a bit of a nightmare start for my picks, but I’m hoping to turn all of that around with the Game 2s in the NBA playoffs on Monday night.
Tonight’s focus is in the prop market, where there are five different player props that I’m targeting.
Plus, we’re going back to the stars (Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Jalen Brunson and Joel Embiid) for most of today’s picks.
Let’s break down the best best to place on Monday night:
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 328-313-13 (-4.45 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 953-871-21 (+35.49 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Joel Embiid OVER 8.5 First Quarter Points (-122) -- 0.5 unit
- Jalen Brunson UNDER 30.5 Points (+105) -- 0.5 unit
- Mitchell Robinson OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-130) -- 0.5 unit
- LeBron James OVER 33.5 Points and Assists (-118) -- 0.5 unit
- Nikola Jokic OVER 28.5 Points (-105) -- 0.5 unit
Joel Embiid OVER 8.5 First Quarter Points (-122) -- 0.5 unit
Joel Embiid wilted in the second half (thanks to an aggravation on his knee injury) in Game 1, so I want to take him as a scorer early.
Embiid had double-digit points in the first quarter on Saturday, cooking Isaiah Hartenstein (he shot 5-for-8 when defended by him for the game) the entire period. He should have more success against him in Game 2, and if Nick Nurse keeps his rotation the same, Embiid will play all 12 minutes in the first quarter.
With the wear and tear on the big man increasing as the game goes on, I expect him to look for his shot early and often tonight.
Jalen Brunson UNDER 30.5 Points (+105) -- 0.5 unit
Jalen Brunson has yet to clear 30 points in a single game against the Philadelphia 76ers, including the playoff win in Game 1 on Saturday.
Brunson shot just 8-for-26 from the field, and he’s struggled against Kelly Oubre and this Sixers defense all season. There were just seven games in the regular season where Brunson shot 30 percent from the field or worse, and two came against the Sixers.
Here’s a look at how he’s fared against Philly this season:
- 29 points (11-for-20 shooting)
- 21 points (5-for-18 shooting)
- 19 points (6-for-22 shooting)
- 20 points (7-for-12 shooting)
- 22 points (8-for-26 shooting)
Philly is putting a lot of size on Brunson and trying to take him out of his comfort zones on the floor. So, despite his massive usage, I think the UNDER is the play in this matchup.
Mitchell Robinson OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-130) -- 0.5 unit
New York Knicks big man Mitchell Robinson dominated the glass in Game 1, grabbing 12 rebounds (seven offensive) on his way to a massive game.
Isaiah Hartenstein struggled to defend Joel Embiid, but Robinson held the reigning MVP to just 2-for-11 shooting from the field.
Tom Thibodeau rolled with Robinson to close the game, and he played more minutes than Hartenstein in Game 1. If that trend continues, 7.5 rebounds is way too low for the Knicks big man, especially with Embiid limited by his knee injury.
LeBron James OVER 33.5 Points and Assists (-118) -- 0.5 unit
The NBA’s all-time leading scorer had a monster first half on his way to 27 points and eight assists in Game 1.
LeBron has now cleared 33.5 points and assists in six of his last seven games (the only game he didn’t was in the play-in), and he’s playing a ton of minutes with the Lakers’ season on the line.
James closed the regular season averaging 28.3 points and 10.5 assists per game in April, so I have to back him in this prop in a crucial Game 2 on Monday.
Nikola Jokic OVER 28.5 Points (-105) -- 0.5 unit
The Los Angeles Lakers simply don’t have an answer for Nikola Jokic, who shot 15-for-23 from the field on his way to a 32-point game in Game 1.
In his four meetings with Los Angeles this season, Jokic has cleared this prop three times, including a 35-point game back on March 2.
Darvin Ham may draw up a new coverage to deal with The Joker, but during playoff time it’s obvious Jokic is willing to hunt his shot in a good matchup.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.