Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Luka Doncic, Celtics-Heat First Half)

Finally. 

After a rough start to the playoffs, Tuesday was a night to get back on track as three of four NBA bets hit (at the expense of my New York Knicks) to hopefully give us some momentum this postseason. 

I’m back for Wednesday’s Game 5 action, as there’s a chance we see another team punch its ticket to the second round. 

With just two games in action tonight, here are the three plays that I’m eyeing, including a familiar Boston Celtics bet that came through on Monday:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 342-329-13 (-5.57 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 967-887-21 (+34.36 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Boston Celtics First Half -8 (-110) vs. Miami Heat – 0.5 unit
• Al Horford OVER 20.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Luka Doncic OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-108) – 0.5 unit

Boston Celtics First Half -8 (-110) vs. Miami Heat – 0.5 unit

Miami simply hasn’t had enough offense to compete in this series outside of Game 2 when it shot the lights out from beyond the arc. 

Now, with Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier all ruled out, I don’t see the Heat keeping up, especially early in this game. 

With such a big spread, I’m always worried about the underdog picking up a backdoor cover, but we know that Boston is going to put the pedal to the metal in the first half to try and pull away and end this series.

All season long, Boston has been elite against the spread in the first half, covering in Games 3 and 4 to move to 59-26-1 on the season. 

We’re going to have to lay eight points with Jayson Tatum and company in this one, but I just don’t see Miami’s offense putting together enough scoring to compete in this game. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro have played well, but there is a lack of consistent scoring after them in the rotation. 

With no fear of Boston resting players in the first half, I think this is the best way to bet on the C’s in this one. 

Al Horford OVER 20.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

Kristaps Porzingis is out tonight, which means Al Horford is going to have an expanded role – and start – for Boston. 

In 19 games without Porzingis this season, Horford averaged 11.6 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game (22 PRA), clearing 20.5 PRA in 11 of those 19 games. 

This is a play on Horford’s usage going way up, and it’s worth noting that he put up seven points, eight rebounds and two assists in place of Porzingis in the second half in Game 4. 

Luka Doncic OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-108) – 0.5 unit

Rebounding has been an “all hands on deck” approach for the Dallas Mavericks, but Luka Doncic has clearly been the leader there, picking up 10 or more boards in three of the four games in this series. 

During the regular season, Luka averaged 9.2 rebounds per game, so he’s certainly capable of being around this number tonight. 

So far in the playoffs, Doncic is averaging 16.3 rebound chances per night. Since he rarely comes out of the game, Luka is a terrific target in this prop, especially since three of the four games in this series have gone UNDER the total, a sign that we’re seeing a lot of missed shots.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.