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Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)

BetSided's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the NBA for the playoff action on Saturday, May 18.

By Peter Dewey

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) controls the ball.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) controls the ball. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
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Another day, another close out game in the NBA playoffs. 

The Dallas Mavericks have a chance to put away the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 in Dallas – the second straight series where Dallas has had the potential to end things on its home floor despite not having a home-court advantage in the series.

Teams that win Game 5 in a 2-2 series go on to win the series more than 80 percent of the time, but the No. 1-seeded Thunder have defied expectations all season long. 

I don’t love taking a side in this game, especially since Dallas has dropped multiple games as a home favorite this postseason, but there are two player props that are great bets for such an intense matchup. 

Let’s break down both of these plays, and their latest odds, for Saturday, May 18:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • 2023-24 season record: 359-364-13 (-5.70 units)
  • Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 984-922-21 (+34.24 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Luka Doncic OVER 28.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 45.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit

Luka Doncic OVER 28.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

Luka Doncic finally got going on the offensive end in Game 5, scoring 31 points while shooting 12-for-22 from the field and 5-for-11 from 3-point range. 

It was also Doncic’s second straight triple-double in this series, and he’s now going to have two full days of rest heading into Game 6 on Saturday. That’s huge for a player nursing knee and ankle injuries.

During the regular season, Doncic averaged 33.9 points per game, and despite his injuries, he’s still cleared 28.5 points in six of his 11 playoff games. Dallas certainly doesn't want this series to get back to OKC, so I expect Luka to have a big workload in Game 6. 

He’s always worth a shot on a scoring prop that is under 30.5.  

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 45.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit

The Thunder may be down in this series, but it’s not because of the play of All-NBA guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

SGA has been dominant in this series, averaging 31.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game while shooting 49.6 percent from the field and 46.7 percent from 3-point range. 

He hasn’t gotten enough help from the rest of his roster, which is why OKC is down 3-2, but I expect him to stuff the stat sheet again in Game 6.

SGA has 46 or more PRA in four of the five games in this series, only failing to clear this total in Game 5 when he finished with 44 PRA. 

This is a win-or-go-home game, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see SGA play major minutes on Saturday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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