Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Davis)

There are two teams on the brink of elimination on Monday night in the NBA playoffs, which brings some major intrigues when betting on tonight’s action. 

Tonight I’m focusing on two high-volume players in their scoring props, as well as a trend for the Boston Celtics that has hit at the highest rate in the NBA this season. 

Can we get back on track in the middle of this first round? Let’s dive into Monday’s plays:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 336-326-13 (-7.56 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 957-880-21 (+32.38 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Anthony Davis OVER 25.5 Points (-122) – 0.5 unit
• Boston Celtics 1H -6 (-115) vs. Miami Heat – 0.5 unit
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 27.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Anthony Davis OVER 25.5 Points (-122) – 0.5 unit

Anthony Davis has scored at least 25 points in every game in this series, including three games where he’s scored 32 or more. 

So, I love AD to score 26-plus points with the Los Angeles Lakers’ season on the line tonight. 

Davis has 17 or more shot attempts in every game in this series, shooting 11-for-17 from the field and grabbing 23 boards in his last game – although he fell one point shy of hitting this prop. 

I can’t see Denver slowing down Davis given how well he’s played in this series, and Darvin Ham has given the big man plenty of run (39+ minutes in every game) through the first four games. 

Boston Celtics 1H -6 (-115) vs. Miami Heat – 0.5 unit

The Boston Celtics are heavily favored once again on Monday, but I’m going to only lay the points in the first half due to Boston’s insane ATS record on the season. 

In 85 games, Boston is 58-26-1 against the spread in the first half, by far the best mark in the NBA.

Given Boston’s talent offensively and Miami’s lackthereof with Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier out, I could see the C’s getting off to a strong start in this one, especially after the team put up a clunker in Game 2.

That appeared to wake up Boston in Game 3, as it outscored Miami 63-39 in the first half in Game 3. 

Rather than risking garbage time in the fourth quarter on a double-digit spread, I’ll back Boston to start strong on Monday night. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 27.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a down scoring game in Game 3, putting up 24 points, but he’s cleared 27.5 points in two of the three games in this series.

SGA is going to get a ton of attention from the New Orleans defense, but he’s also going to have some major usage, attempting 24, 19 and 20 shots in his first three games in this series.

The Pelicans have some solid perimeter defenders, but SGA averaged well over 30 points per game in the regular season, and his role hasn’t changed in the playoffs. This number is too low to pass up on Monday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.