Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Trae Young, Tyler Herro)

BetSided's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the NBA for the action in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament.
Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young.
Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young. / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

The focus of the NBA postseason turns to the Eastern Conference after the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings won the play-in action in the Western Conference on Tuesday night.

I did not have a good night, getting both of my picks wrong, but we’re looking to turn that around with the two Eastern Conference meetings: 

  • No. 8 Miami Heat vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers
  • No. 10 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 9 Chicago Bulls

There are a couple of prop bets that I really like in these games, as we could be in for some close games.

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • 2023-24 season record: 323-300-13 (-0.11 units)
  • Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 948-858-21 (+39.83 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

  • Trae Young OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-162) – 0.5 unit
  • Tyler Herro OVER 4.5 Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit
  • Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 (-110) vs. Miami Heat – 0.5 unit

Trae Young OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-162) – 0.5 unit

The Bulls have allowed the second-most 3-pointers per game on the season, so I love this prop for Trae Young after he returned to the lineup to close out the regular season.

Trae shot 37.3 percent from 3 on 8.7 3-point attempts per game (3.2 3-pointers made), and he should get his fair share of shots in a win-or-go-home matchup tonight.

Young shot just 5-for-22 from the 3-point line in two regular season meetings with Chicago, but the volume is there. He attempted at least 10 3s in each game, a good sign for this chances to clear this tonight. 

Tyler Herro OVER 4.5 Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit

With Terry Rozier out, Tyler Herro should take on a primary ball-handling role in this game, and he closed out the regular season with four games of five or more assists. 

Herro missed a ton of the 2023-24 season, but he’s averaging 4.5 assists per game overall. He’s recorded five and seven dimes in two games against Philly. 

While I expect Jimmy Butler to run the show tonight, don’t be shocked if Herro clears this prop on Wednesday. 

Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 (-110) vs. Miami Heat – 0.5 unit

I’m concerned about Miami in this game, especially since the team won’t have starting point guard Terry Rozier (neck) for this matchup. This slows the team’s playmaking and options to defend Tyrese Maxey, which is a good sign for Philly. 

The Heat finished the regular season with the No. 2 record against the spread as road underdogs (16-9), but they are running into a juggernaut in this one.

Not only is Philly 31-8 straight up when Embiid plays, but the team is 21-11 against the spread as a home favorite. 

Miami finished the season strong, ranking No. 1 in net rating over its final 10 games, but the Heat still lost to Philly with Embiid playing on a minutes limit. 

If the big man is able to handle his usual role, I don’t see the Heat pulling off the upset. I’ll lay the points with the Sixers as long as Embiid is good to go.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.