Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Tyrese Maxey, Pascal Siakam)

Another day, another pair of elimination games in the first round of the NBA playoffs, and there’s plenty of ways that we can bet on them. 

I’m rolling with my first spread pick in quite some time when it comes to the Game 5 meeting between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic, who are tied at two games apiece entering Tuesday’s matchup. 

In the two elimination games (New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers), it’s all about the prop market!

Let’s break down today’s NBA Best Bets:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 339-328-13 (-6.38 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 964-886-21 (+33.56 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Orlando Magic +5 (-108) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
• Tyrese Maxey OVER 35.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-118)
• Donte DiVincenzo UNDER 18.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
• Pascal Siakam OVER 13.5 Rebounds and Assists (-102)

Orlando Magic +5 (-108) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

I’m going to take the points in Game 5, especially since this series has featured a bunch of low-scoring games (the UNDER hit in three of the first four), especially in Cleveland. 

Orlando struggled to shoot the ball on the road to open the series, but I do think there is something to be said for the team re-gaining confidence at home to even the series. 

In the first two games of the series, Orlando shot under 25 percent from 3 and made just 17 total shots from beyond the arc. In Games 3 and 4, they made 25-of-63 shots from deep (39.6 percent), and easily won both games. 

I’m not saying Orlando is going to continue to shoot 40 percent from 3 – the team was 24th in the league in 3-point percentage for a reason – but shooting under 25.0 percent is also not the norm. 

Cleveland has to get more from Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell to win this series, and I am concerned that the Cavs' bench isn’t equipped to step up if one of the starters underperforms. Cleveland had just 36 total bench points in Games 3 and 4 despite being blown out in both matchups. 

Five points is way too much in a series that has featured a bunch of low-scoring games. 

Tyrese Maxey OVER 35.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-118)

Tyrese Maxey could be leaned on more tonight if Joel Embiid is limited, and he especially would be if the Philadelphia 76ers star is ruled out entirely. 

While I expect Embiid to still play, this number is definitely way too low for Maxey, who has tallied 39, 54, 27, and 35 points, rebounds, and assists in his first four games of this series. 

Maxey had his worst shooting game (8-for-21) in Game 4 and came just one PRA shy of hitting this prop, and I expect him to bounce back at Madison Square Garden where he scored 30+ points in each of the first two games.

The Sixers guard’s usage is also massive. He’s taken 21 or more shots in every game and played over 41 minutes in each contest. With the ball in Maxey’s hands so often, he’s a must-bet to clear this prop on Tuesday. 

Donte DiVincenzo UNDER 18.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

New York Knicks sharpshooter Donte DiVincenzo has struggled in this series outside of Game 2 when he drilled the go-ahead 3-pointer with 13 seconds to play. 

DiVincenzo has totaled 12, 26, 12, and 10 points, rebounds a,nd assists in the first four games of this series, shooting just 34.2 percent from the field and 34.8 percent from 3. 

Unlike the regular season, DiVincenzo isn’t getting to take a ton of 3s, as the Sixers are looking to make him put the ball on the floor. That’s led to some lower-scoring outputs, and he did not have a point in Game 4 until midway through the third quarter. 

This number is too high for a player who doesn’t initiate offense as a passer, especially with Jalen Brunson scoring at a high level and handling the rock on basically every possession. 

Pascal Siakam OVER 13.5 Rebounds and Assists (-102)

So far in this series, Pascal Siakam has done it all, but he’s seen his scoring taper off after back-to-back 35-plus point games in Milwaukee. 

What hasn’t changed is Siakam’s rebounding and passing, as he’s tallied 15, 17, 13, and 16 rebounds and assists through the first four games of the series.

With Giannis Antetokounmpo doubtful, the Bucks are much less threatening on the glass, and Siakam has shown a willingness as a passer (seven assists in Game 4) after commanding more defensive attention because of his big scoring games. 

I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Indiana Pacers forward push double-digit boards again, so this prop is more than reasonable, especially if he turns in a 13-rebound game like he did in Game 1.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.