Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Zion Williamson, Kyle Kuzma)

What better way to kick off the weekend than knocking out a few NBA bets?

There are five plays -- four prop bets -- that I'm eyeing on March 8, with the New Orleans-Pelicans and Zion Williamson taking center stage for tonight's action.

Plus, there is a prop that I love for the late-night Los Angeles Lakers-Milwaukee Bucks matchup on ESPN tonight.

Let's break down these picks to stay in the green this season.

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 261-242-11 (+0.49 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 886-800-19 (+40.44 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Kyle Kuzma OVER 22.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit
• New Orleans Pelicans -8 (-110) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 0.5 unit
• Zion Williamson OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit
• Precious Achiuwa OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-130) – 0.5 unit
• Damian Lillard OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (+114) – 0.5 unit

Kyle Kuzma OVER 22.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit

Washington Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma has cleared this prop in seven of his last 10 games, and now he gets a favorable matchup against the No. 28 defense in the NBA. 

Over this 10-game stretch, Kuzma is averaging 24.3 points per game while shooting 50.0 percent from the field and 40.6 percent from beyond the arc. 

He already has games with 28 and 33 points against the Charlotte Hornets this season, and we’ve seen Kuz take at least 19 shots in seven of his last 10 games. He’s a steal at this prop number on Friday night. 

New Orleans Pelicans -8 (-110) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 0.5 unit

There are two extremely concerning trends for the Philadelphia 76ers in this game, and it relates to the absence of their All-Stars.

Philadelphia is: 

• 9-19 straight up without Joel Embiid this season
• 0-7 straight up without Tyrese Maxey this season

Yikes. 

Maxey has missed the team’s last two games with a concussion, and Philly lost by five points to the Brooklyn Nets (who lost to the Detroit Pistons last night) and by six points to the Memphis Grizzlies (who have just 22 wins all season long). 

New Orleans is just 7-8 against the spread as a road favorite, but the team has put together some inspiring blowout wins as of late, giving me confidence that the team can win this game by nearly double digits and cover. 

Philly simply lacks the offensive firepower it needs to win this game with Maxey and Embiid out. 

Zion Williamson OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit

New Orleans star Zion Williamson has cleared this prop in five of his last eight games, and he’s averaging 5.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game on the season. 

Zion has been a great passer this season, and that’s been heightened as of late, as he’s put up 7.4 assists per game over his last eight matchups. 

He had eight rebounds and six assists in his last meeting with the Sixers, and I think he could have some extra juice on the glass with Philly top two offensive stars out, likely leading to more defensive rebounds for NOLA. 

Precious Achiuwa OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-130) – 0.5 unit

I love this prop for New York Knicks forward Precious Achiuwa, who had 14 rebounds in his last start against the Orlando Magic. 

Sure, Achiuwa’s numbers are down over his last two games (six and four rebounds), but he’s cleared 6.5 boards in seven of his last 10 games. 

Over that 10-game stretch, Achiuwa is averaging 9.3 rebounds on 17.6 rebound chances per game. He should be able to clear this prop against an Orlando team that has played the Knicks well this season. 

Damian Lillard OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (+114) – 0.5 unit

Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard has cleared this prop in four of his last six games, and he’s been hot from 3 over that stretch. 

Dame is shooting 44.2 percent from 3 over that stretch, hitting 3.8 shots from 3 per game on 8.7 attempts. The attempts are key for me, as Dame is a high volume shooting that is going to need to score for the Bucks to win this game on the road. 

The Los Angeles Lakers also rank 28th in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game, so this is a favorable matchup for one of the game’s best shooters.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.