Peter’s Points: Norman Powell Worthy of Bet in Sixth Man of the Year Futures Market

Awards season in the NBA is coming quickly, and there’s one market that I’m looking to corner (for the second straight season) down the stretch of the 2023-24 campaign.

For those who don’t know, last season I was lucky enough to get Immanuel Quickley at +20000 odds to win Sixth Man of the Year in late February, allowing myself a perfect hedge opportunity when he was moved to the favorite in the market. 

I subsequently placed one of the biggest bets of my life on Malcolm Brogdon – who went on to win the award – to give myself a shot at guaranteeing a profit. 

This year, I might be able to do the same thing. 

In my preseason column where I divulged 15 futures that I bet in the NBA, I took Malik Monk at +1500 odds to win the award this season. Now, Monk is the heavy favorite at -250 to win the award. 

Here’s what I had to say about Monk before the season:

Monk was in the conversation for this award last season after putting up 13.5 points per game for the Sacramento Kings. 

An elite scorer, Monk thrived with consistent minutes in Sacramento, and it’s hard to see the team changing his role after earning a top three seed last season. 

Monk has averaged 13.8 and 13.5 points per game the last two seasons and is a career 35.6 percent shooter from beyond the arc. With his role pretty much set in stone, I think Monk’s scoring prowess puts him in a great spot to win the award this season.

Monk has delivered on this prediction, averaging 15.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game on efficient shooting splits – 44.9 percent from the field, 37.2 percent from 3. He’s been much more efficient than the No. 3 candidate in this market – Tim Hardaway Jr. – who is shooting just 40.8 percent from the field this season. 

Even with Monk at -250 to win the Sixth Man of the Year (implied probability of 71.43 percent), I want to attempt to guarantee a win in this market.

That’s where betting on Los Angeles Clippers guard Norman Powell comes in. 

He has a serious case for the Sixth Man of the Year award, yet his odds have dropped as of late (they were +450 late last month), giving anyone who tailed my Monk pick a perfect chance to guarantee at least five units of profit if either of these players win. 

Let’s break down why Powell deserves a look in this market: 

Why Norman Powell is Worth a Bet for Sixth Man of the Year

It starts with the numbers for Powell, as he has been terrific for the Clippers this season, averaging 13.6 points per game while shooting an impressive 49.2 percent from the field and 45.0 percent from 3. 

While he’s more efficient than Monk, he certainly doesn’t have the role that the Kings guard does as a playmaker. Powell is averaging just 1.1 assists per game to go with 2.6 rebounds. 

The argument for Powell to win Sixth Man of the Year comes down to his team’s success (the Clippers are the No. 4 seed in the West and three games out of the No. 1 seed) and his efficient play.

When looking at the past winners of the Sixth Man of the Year award, there is a serious correlation between earning this honor and team success:

• 2022-23: Malcolm Brogdon – Boston Celtics (No. 2 in East)
• 2021-22: Tyler Herro – Miami Heat (No. 1 in East)
• 2020-21: Jordan Clarkson – Utah Jazz (No. 1 in West)
• 2019-20: Montrezl Harrell – Los Angeles Clippers (No. 2 in West)
• 2018-19: Lou Williams – Los Angeles Clippers (No. 8 in West)
• 2017-18: Lou Williams – Los Angeles Clippers (No. 10 in West)
• 2016-17: Eric Gordon – Houston Rockets (No. 3 in West)
• 2015-16: Jamal Crawford – Los Angeles Clippers (No. 4 in West)
• 2014-15: Lou Williams – Toronto Raptors (No. 4 in East)
• 2013-14: Jamal Crawford – Los Angeles Clippers (No. 3 in West)

Over the last 10 seasons, only Lou Williams (a multi-time Sixth Man of the Year) has won the award and not finished on a top four team in the conference. 

That’s not to say Monk can’t do that this season – Williams showed it’s possible to do it on a non-playoff team in the 2017-18 season – but it gives Powell somewhat of an edge to win the award.

Plus, look at all those Clippers! (That’s not why I’m making this bet, just pretty crazy). 

At the end of the day, this is about getting the most out of this market after placing a strong wager before the season. Taking Powell should put us in a great spot to guarantee a profit on Sixth Man of the Year this season.

If you’re looking to bet on the Sixth Man of the Year, FanDuel Sportsbook has an amazing promotional offer. New users who sign up with the link below and wager $5 will receive $150 in bonus bets -- if their bet wins.

Sign up for FanDuel now!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.