Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for A'Ja Wilson, Cameron Brink and More)

The WNBA season keeps rolling on Tuesday night, and after we were treated to a thriller between the Indiana Fever and Connecticut Sun on Monday, there are three more games to dive into on May 21.

So far this season, we’re off to a good start betting on the WNBA, and I’m looking to wager on each of the matchups on Tuesday – whether it be in the prop market or on a side or total.

However, before we dive into today’s best bets, let’s take a look at each of the matchups for Tuesday’s slate: 

Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream

The Atlanta Dream and Dallas Wings are both 1-1, but the Dream are favored at home in this matchup by 4.5 points.

Dallas is banged up with Natasha Howard and Satou Sabally both out, which leaves a lot on the plate of guard Arike Ogunbowale. 

Meanwhile, Atlanta star Rhyne Howard (23.0 points per game) has been off to a blistering start in 2024. Can she keep it rolling?

Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces

The Phoenix Mercury pulled off an impressive win over the Dream their last time out, riding a 38-point game from Kahleah Copper. 

This is the second meeting of the season between the Mercury and Las Vegas Aces, and the defending champs took care of business in the opener, winning by nine points.

Still, oddsmakers seem to think this game could get out of hand, favoring the Aces by 14.5 points. Brittney Griner is expected to miss another game for the Mercury, which could make it tough on them defending down low. 

Washington Mystics vs. Los Angeles Sparks

Someone is going to get their first win of the season in this matchup!

Washington is off to an 0-3 start, but it has kept every game within 10 points so far this season. Without Elena Delle Donne, the Mystics are still trying to find their footing offensively, as they rank ninth in the league in offensive rating this season.

As for the Sparks, they hung tough with the Aces in their last game, losing by seven, and Dearica Hamby had a massive 29-point game. They’d love to see more from No. 2 overall pick Cameron Brink (three points vs. Las Vegas) in Tuesday’s matchup.

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 4-2 (+0.79 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Atlanta Dream -4.5 (-115) vs. Dallas Wings
• A’ja Wilson OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Cameron Brink UNDER 19.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit

Atlanta Dream -4.5 (-115) vs. Dallas Wings

I am surprised that Atlanta is only favored by 4.5 points with both Sabally and Howard expected to miss this game.

Outside of Ogunbowale, the Wings only have one other player (Teaira McCowan) who is averaging in double figures this season, and the Wings scored just 74 points in their loss to the Chicago Sky with Howard out.

Ogunbowale had 35 points in that matchup, but it still wasn’t enough.

The Dream, on the other hand, have the best effective field goal percentage in the WNBA through their first two games, ranking No. 3 in the league in offensive rating. 

They have an elite group of Howard, Allisha Gray, Tina Charless, and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus who all average at least 13.5 points per game so far this season.

Ultimately, I think the Dream just has too much offense for the Wings to handle and should have the edge at home. 

A’ja Wilson OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit

A’ja Wilson is off to a strong start in the 2024 WNBA season, averaging 26.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game in two contests.

Griner missing this game for the Mercury is a huge loss, as Wilson should dominate down low – as she did in the season opener. Wilson shot 10-for-22 from the field in that game and scored 30 points, but I’m focusing on her rebounding (13 boards) for tonight’s prop. 

Wilson should have a field day down low with Phoenix’s top big out, and she was the only player in the season opener to have double-digit rebounds on either team. 

The Mercury are third in the league in rebounding percentage this season, but they also rank just ninth in effective field goal percentage, which means there should be plenty of misses for Wilson to clear on the defensive glass. 

I’ll take the league’s best player to have a big rebounding game on Tuesday night. 

Cameron Brink UNDER 19.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit

Sparks rookie Cameron Brink is averaging 7.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game in her first two WNBA games, falling short of this prop in each of those contests. 

Foul trouble has been an issue for Brink – she has nine fouls in two games – and it’s limited her to 19:46 and 25:05 in her first two contests. 

The rookie hasn’t really come close to clearing this prop, putting up 17 PRA in her first game and 11 in her second while shooting just 13 total shots in those contests. Brink had 11 points in the season opener, but she recorded just two rebounds.

Then, in her second game she failed to register an assist but grabbed a career-high eight boards. 

Since she’s not the No. 1 option on offense, we’re relying on either a great shooting night or Brink stuffing the stat sheet to clear this prop. I’m not ready to back her to get 20 or more points, rebounds, and assists.

Take the UNDER tonight.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.