Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Breanna Stewart, Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston)

All eyes in the WNBA are on No. 1 overall pick Caitlin Clark as she makes her home debut for the Indiana Fever on Thursday night against the New York Liberty.

This is the only game on the WNBA slate tonight, and for good reason. The Liberty are one of the league’s top teams, and they’ll serve as a great test for Clark, who scored 20 points but also had 10 turnovers in her WNBA regular season debut. 

The Liberty squeaked by with a five-point win against the Washington Mystics on Tuesday night, thanks to a massive fourth quarter performance, but they are favored by eight on the road in this matchup. 

While the Liberty are loaded with talent, featuring Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescua, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Courtney Vandersloot, they have struggled at times to cover the spread in recent seasons. 

So, why not look to the prop market for Thursday’s game? 

It’s early in the season, and there’s still a lot to find out about these teams, but I have a couple players I’m willing to wager on tonight:

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 1-0 (+0.9091 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Breanna Stewart OVER 21.5 Points (+100) – 0.5 unit
• Aliyah Boston UNDER 13.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit
• Caitlin Clark UNDER 3.5 Rebounds (-120) – 0.5 unit

Breanna Stewart OVER 21.5 Points (+100) – 0.5 unit

Stewart – the league’s MVP last season – attempted just nine shots in the first game of the year against Washington, but I don’t expect that to continue on Thursday. 

Last season, Stewart attempted a career-high 17.0 shots per game, averaging 23.0 points per game (also a career-high). 

While Game 1 was a Jonquel Jones masterpiece, I don’t see Stewart deferring again on Thursday against a Fever team that was destroyed by another shooting big – DeWanna Bonner (20 points) – in its season opener.

Stewart is one of the toughest matchups in the NBA, and she actually didn’t have a single game in 2023 with less than 10 shots attempts. The season opener was an insane anomaly, and I expect her to bounce back in game No. 2. 

Aliyah Boston UNDER 13.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit

Former No. 1 overall pick Aliyah Boston was the Rookie of the Year in the WNBA last season, averaging 14.5 points per game. 

However, she was an afterthought in the Fever offense on Tuesday, scoring just four shots on six attempts from the field. Now, she’ll have to deal with Jones, one of the bigger players – and better shot blockers – in the WNBA on Thursday. 

Boston’s usage is already way down with the addition of Clark, as only Clark and NaLyssa Smith attempted double-digit shots in the season opener. Plus, the Fever had a whopping 25 turnovers, which really took away from their chances to score the ball. 

I’ll fade Boston here with oddsmakers not reacting to her usage in game one of the season. 

Caitlin Clark UNDER 3.5 Rebounds (-120) – 0.5 unit

Clark was held without a rebound in her regular season debut, and it makes sense since the Connecticut Sun were the best rebounding team in the WNBA last season.

The problem? The Liberty were No. 3 in that category, and they outrebounded Washington in their season opener.

While the Fever did turn the ball over a lot, they also didn’t hit the glass at a high rate, grabbing just 28 rebounds on Tuesday while allowing the Sun to shoot 48.5 percent from the field. 

With New York’s size down low, I am worried about Clark on the glass, especially with this prop calling for her to get four or more boards to hit the OVER. 

I can’t get to this number for Clark until we see more of her hitting the glass in the WNBA.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.