Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Sabrina Ionescu, Mercury and Lynx)

Thursday’s WNBA slate is a loaded one, as there are three matchups featuring some of the best players in the league, beginning with MVP candidates Alyssa Thomas and Napheesa Collier facing off at Mohegan Sun Arena. 

The 4-0 New York Liberty are also in action against Angel Reese and the Chicago Sky, giving us plenty of games – and player props – to consider betting on Thursday. 

Here’s a short breakdown of each game, followed by my WNBA Best Bets for May 23: 

Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun

The Sun and Lynx are two of the three teams left in the WNBA that are undefeated, although Minnesota has just two games under its belt so far in 2024. 

Collier (24.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists per game) has been elite to start the season for Minnesota, but matching up with the frontcourt duo of DeWanna Bonner and Thomas won’t be easy. 

Plus, the Sun – who saw some turnover in their guard rotation this past offseason – has gotten a lot of production from two holdovers from last season’s team in Tyasha Harris (12.3 points per game) and DJ Carrington (17.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists per game). 

Oddsmakers have the Sun favored by seven points at home in this matchup. 

Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty

The Liberty are a league-best 4-0 this season, riding their quartet of Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton to a strong start. 

This is just the third game of the season for the Sky, who are 1-1 and still won’t have top pick Kamilla Cardoso (shoulder) in this matchup. Diamond DeShields and Isabelle Harrison are both questionable. 

New York is favored by 16 points at home in this matchup, but it has just one win by more than 11 points this season – a 36-point win over the 0-5 Indiana Fever. 

New York is just 1-3 against the spread despite being heavily favored in every game in 2024. 

Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury

The Phoenix Mercury are 2-1 this season, thanks to some massive scoring performances from newly-acquired guard Kahleah Copper (31.3 points per game).

Even with Brittney Griner out, the Mercury upset the Las Vegas Aces in their last game, and they are now seven-point favorites at home against the Washington Mystics. 

Washington is 0-4 this season, including 0-1 without Shakira Austin, who is listed as “day-to-day” on the latest injury report. Brittney Sykes is out. 

Copper, Diana Taurasi, and Natasha Cloud will look to keep their perfect 3-0 ATS record intact in this matchup.

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 7-4 (+1.04 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Phoenix Mercury -7 (-108) vs. Washington Mystics
• Natasha Cloud OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Minnesota Lynx +7 (-115) vs. Connecticut Sun – 0.5 unit
• Sabrina Ionescu OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-145) – 0.5 unit

Phoenix Mercury -7 (-108) vs. Washington Mystics

The Mercury are perfect against the spread this season, and I think that continues on Thursday night.

Washington has struggled to find offense with Elena Delle Donne no longer with the team, and that gets even tougher if Austin doesn’t play in this matchup. 

The Mystics are just 11th in offensive rating so far this season while the Mercury clock in at No. 4, and Phoenix beat – and hung tough in a loss – in two games against the Las Vegas Aces. 

This should feel like a cupcake matchup for Phoenix, and even without Griner, I think the guard play of Copper, Taurasi, and Natasha Cloud will be too much for Washington to handle. 

Natasha Cloud OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

Natasha Cloud is the unsung hero of this Phoenix team, and she’s stuffed the stat sheet through three games in 2024. 

Cloud is averaging 10.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game, and I think she’s due for some positive regression shooting the ball (just 35.5 percent from the field) in the near future. 

In three games, Cloud has PRA numbers of 29, 14, and 28, and she’s picked up at least five assists in every game. I expect Cloud to have a major role against the Mystics, and if she hits the glass like she did in the two games against the Aces, the Mercury guard should find himself clearing this number with ease once again. 

Minnesota Lynx +7 (-115) vs. Connecticut Sun – 0.5 unit

The Sun are one of the best teams in the WNBA once again, posting the best offensive rating in the league through three games, but they’re running into the No. 1 defense in Minnesota tonight.

I think Napheesa Collier may be the most undervalued player in the WNBA, and she gives the Lynx a real chance to compete with Thomas and Bonner in the frontcourt. 

Minnesota is 2-0 against the spread in 2024 while the Sun are just 1-2, and it’s worth noting that Connecticut was favored by seven points in its opener against the 0-5 Fever. That makes this a disrespectful line for the Lynx, who have proven already that they are a better team. 

Sabrina Ionescu OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-145) – 0.5 unit

It’s been a rough start to the 2024 season for Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu, as she’s shooting just 38.9 percent from the field and 26.7 percent from 3-point range.

A career 37.3 percent shooter from deep, Ionescu is due for a big game shooting the 3-ball, especially since she’s taken at least six shots from downtown in every game, clearing this prop once in four matchups.

Luckily for Ionescu, the Chicago Sky have not defended the 3-ball well, allowing their opponents to shoot 36.4 percent from downtown – the fourth-worst mark in the league. 

It’s only a matter of time before Ionescu finds her shot, and I think this is a prime spot to buy low on her in the prop market.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.