Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Prediction and Picks for LaMelo Ball, Jaren Jackson Jr.)

Monday is the Sports Equinox, so it's only right that we place a few bets on the 11-game NBA slate on Monday night!

I have a pair of player props that I love for tonight's action, as well as a spread pick for the Golden State Warriors-New Orleans Pelicans game.

Sunday was a rough day, going 0-3, so we're in need of a bounce back to close out the month of October.

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 10-12 (-2.09 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 635-569-9 (+37.85 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

If you’re looking to bet on any game in the NBA tonight, FanDuel Sportsbook has an amazing promotional offer. New users who sign up with the link below and wager $5 will receive $150 in bonus bets (if your team wins) and three months free of NBA League Pass!

NBA Best Bets Today

• LaMelo Ball OVER 20.5 Points (-130)
• Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 1.5 Blocks (-150)
• Golden State Warriors +4.5 vs. New Orleans Pelicans

LaMelo Ball OVER 20.5 Points (-130)

One of the most important things to look at when betting player props is usage and opportunities – especially when it comes to scoring. 

You don’t want to take players to go OVER point totals when they only have a few shots per game, but that isn’t the case with LaMelo Ball. 

The Charlotte Hornets star has a usage rate of 29.1 percent this season, and he’s taken 15 and 17 shots (including 18 total 3-pointers) over the team’s first two games this season. 

The problem? Ball is shooting 8-for-32 from the field (25.0 percent) and 33.3 percent from beyond the arc. He’s due for some positive regression in that department, so as long as the shot attempts remain in the teens, he should go over this number.  

Plus, the Brooklyn Nets are 29th in defensive rating through the first two games, so this could be a high-scoring affair. 

Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 1.5 Blocks (-150)

The league’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year is an elite shot blocker, posting five, three and one block in his first three games this season. 

The crazy part? Jaren Jackson Jr. has blocked a ton more shots at home than on the road dating back to last season. 

In 33 home games in the 2022-23 campaign, JJJ had 118 blocks. In 30 road games, he recorded just 71. This season, the trend has continued. 

Jackson has eight blocks across his two home games, but he had just one on the road against the Washington Wizards. I think with Memphis back at home for this matchup that he’s a great bet to pick up at least two blocks against the Dallas Mavericks. 

Golden State Warriors +4.5 vs. New Orleans Pelicans

The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten out to a strong start, but I love the Warriors as dogs here, even on the second night of a back-to-back. 

Warriors head coach Steve Kerr seemed to confirm that everyone would be active after Golden State handled Houston on Sunday night. 

I’m high on this Golden State team, especially with Steph Curry shooting the lights out from 3 to start the year (44.7 percent on 38 attempts this season).

New Orleans has played a shorthanded Memphis team and the New York Knicks – who were on the second night of a back-to-back – so far this season. They may win this game, but I love getting the points with Golden State here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.