Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Bam Adebayo, Cade Cunningham and More)
By Peter Dewey
Another day, another loaded list of NBA bets -- even for the light four-game slate on Monday night.
Monday's action brings us a couple of matchups to take advantage of, especially the New York Knicks-Detroit Pistons matchup, as the first meeting this season could tell us a lot about how to bet in the prop market.
Plus, later in the night the Miami Heat and Sacramento Kings face off, and both star big men are worth a look in the prop market.
Let's talk some ball and break down these seven bets for Monday's action:
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 224-219-10 (-6.83 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 849-777-19 (+33.11 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Toronto Raptors +6 (-105) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit
- New York Knicks-Detroit Pistons UNDER 223.5 (-112) – 0.5 unit
- Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+114) – 0.5 unit
- Jalen Duren OVER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit
- Cade Cunningham OVER 21.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit
- Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+130) – 0.5 unit
- Bam Adebayo OVER 36.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit
Toronto Raptors +6 (-105) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit
This may seem like an obvious game to bet the Indiana Pacers, but I believe in the struggling Toronto Raptors to cover on Monday.
Indiana has been brutal in this spot this season, posting the worst ATS record in the NBA on the second night of back-to-backs (2-8).
That’s extremely concerning, especially against a Toronto team that has held its own as a road underdog, going 12-11-1 against the spread.
These teams played a close game in Toronto on Feb. 14, with the Pacers pulling out a two-point road win.
Toronto has looked much better since the All-Star break, blowing out the Brooklyn Nets before pulling off a major road win against Atlanta on Friday night.
The team comes into this game well-rested, and I wouldn't be shocked if it keeps things close with an Indiana team that loves to get out and run but also doesn’t defend at a high level, this season.
New York Knicks-Detroit Pistons UNDER 223.5 (-112) – 0.5 unit
New York is one of the best UNDER teams in the NBA when at home, hitting the UNDER in 19 of 28 games.
The Knicks’ offense has undoubtedly taken a hit without Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, and Detroit’s also seen its offense depleted after it traded Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks to the Knicks at the deadline.
Detroit has fallen short of this total in three of its last five games, scoring 115 or fewer points in each game. Meanwhile, the Knicks have failed to clear this total in four straight games, scoring 103 points or fewer in each matchup.
On the season, the Knicks are a top-10 defense in the NBA, and I expect them to slow down this Detroit team that is in the bottom 10 in the league in offensive rating this season.
Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+114) – 0.5 unit
Jalen Brunson went through a bit of a shooting slump ahead of the All-Star break, but he’s cleared this prop in two of his last three games, going 4-for-9 from beyond the arc in the team’s loss to the Boston Celtics on Saturday.
Brunson is shooting 40.7 percent from 3 on the season, and now he gets a favorable matchup with a Detroit team that ranks just 24th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.
Getting Brunson at plus money in this prop is great value, especially since he made seven shots from beyond the arc the last time these teams played.
Jalen Duren OVER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit
Jalen Duren is one of the best young big men in the game, and I expect him to control the glass tonight, even though the Knicks are the No. 1 rebounding team in the NBA this season.
Isaiah Hartenstein is currently on a minutes limit, and the Knicks are down big man Mitchell Robinson and star forward Julius Randle, two of the team’s leading rebounders.
Duren has cleared 12.5 rebounds and assists in six of his last seven games, and he’s averaging 12.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game on the season. In his last meeting with the Knicks, the Pistons big man had 12 boards and two assists, which would have hit the OVER on this prop.
Back him to go OVER this at a discounted number compared to what he usually is set at in this prop.
Cade Cunningham OVER 21.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit
Cade Cunningham has easily cleared this prop in back-to-back games, and he put together a 31-point outing against the Knicks earlier this season.
The former No. 1 overall pick has cleared this total in four of his last six games, attempting at least 15 shots in five of those contests. The usage will be key, but with the Pistons moving on from Burks and Bogdanovic at the deadline, Cunningham and Jaden Ivey have run the offense.
Cade is averaging 22.2 points on 18.5 shot attempts per game this season. New York’s defense has slipped into the bottom 10 in the NBA over its last 10 games, so he may be undervalued at this number on Monday.
Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+130) – 0.5 unit
Sacramento Kings big man Domantas Sabonis has picked up a triple-double in five of his last six games, including a massive showing against the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday night.
In his first meeting against the Miami Heat, Sabonis had 19 points, 17 rebounds, and 13 assists in a loss. He could be in line for an even bigger game if the Kings can come out with a win as seven-point favorites.
Sabonis leads the NBA in triple-doubles this season, recording one in 15 of his 26 games since New Year’s Eve. The fact that he’s +130 to do it again on Monday feels like a massive steal, especially given his recent success.
Bam Adebayo OVER 36.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit
I love this prop for Bam Adebayo with Jimmy Butler out of the lineup for the Hea due to a one-game suspension.
This season, Adebayo is averaging 21.9 points, 11.1 rebounds and 4.7 assists in 17 games without Butler, and he’s cleared 36.5 points, rebounds, and assists in eight straight games without the star forward.
The Kings also have struggled all season to defend at home, ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in defensive rating. It’s a major reason why the team is 17-7-1 on the OVER when at Golden 1 Center this season.
Adebayo did finish with just 31 PRA the last time these teams met, but Butler scored 31 points in that game. With Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier questionable, Bam could have a massive game on Monday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.