Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Brandon Miller, Rockets-Wizards)

With just five games in the NBA on Tuesday night, I'm only making three NBA bets after a strong 3-1 night has brought us back to within one unit of being in the green.

In all honesty, there are enough futures (Malik Monk Sixth Man of the Year mainly) that I feel good about entering the final weeks, so no reason to force some bets to hurt our season-long record.

There are two spreads and a player prop that I'm looking at, as we're fading two of the worst teams in the NBA.

Let's talk some ball and break down these picks:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 281-261-13 (-0.56 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 906-819-21 (+39.37 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Brandon Miller OVER 16.5 Points (-125)
• Houston Rockets -10 (-105) vs. Washington Wizards
• Orlando Magic -13 (-110) vs. Charlotte Hornets

Brandon Miller OVER 16.5 Points (-125)

I’m buying low on Brandon Miller, who was ejected from his last game for a Flagrant 2 foul on Tyrese Maxey.

Miller is averaging 16.6 points per game this season, and he cleared this prop in his last game against Orlando on March 5, scoring 18 points on 7-of-15 shooting. 

The rookie has at least 17 points in seven of his last 11 games, although he has fallen short of this line in three straight. I think the number for Miller has dropped enough to take a shot on him tonight. 

Houston Rockets -10 (-105) vs. Washington Wizards

The Houston Rockets have not been good on the road this season overall, going just 9-24 straight up, but I think there is a key trend that makes them a solid bet in this one. 

Houston has been favored on the road just six times all season, going 3-3 against the spread in those matchups. Meanwhile, the Washington Wizards are a dreadful 8-18 against the spread as home dogs after getting blown out by Boston on Sunday. 

Washington is down several key rotation players as well Tyus Jones, Bilal Coulibaly, Deni Avdija, and Marvin Bagley. Plus, Kyle Kuzma is questionable. 

These teams played last week with Houston winning comfortably at home by 16 points. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Rockets pick up another win, as Washington’s defense (dead last in the NBA in defensive rating) is extremely exploitable. 

Given Washington’s overall struggles at home (worse record than on the road), I’ll lay the points with Houston here. 

Orlando Magic -13 (-110) vs. Charlotte Hornets

Orlando has been elite at home, going 15-3 against the spread as a home favorite, and I don’t plan on fading the team now. 

The Magic also get the benefit of facing a Charlotte team that is just 12-22 against the spread as a road underdog. The Hornets have been brutal away from home all season, going 8-27 straight up in 35 games. 

So far this season, Orlando has won by 12 and 13 points against the Hornets, and I expect another double-digit win tonight when looking at these teams’ recent performance. 

Over the last 10 games, the Hornets are just 26th in net rating while Orlando is No. 4 in the league!

Give me the Magic in a no-brainer matchup at home.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.