Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Bulls-Heat, CJ McCollum)

The final playoff spots in the Eastern and Western Conference are up for grabs on Friday night, and there are plenty of bets that we can place on these contests.

With Jimmy Butler, Alex Caruso and Zion Williamson banged up, there are two plays that I’m making for this slate that features these matchups: 

• Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat
• Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans

Both games are expected to be close based on the latest game lines, so we should be in for a great close to the play-in tournament action. 

Here are Friday’s NBA Best Bets.

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 325-303-13 (-1.32 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 950-861-21 (+38.61 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Chicago Bulls Moneyline (+105) vs. Miami Heat – 0.5 unit
• CJ McCollum OVER 23.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Chicago Bulls Moneyline (+105) vs. Miami Heat – 0.5 unit

Miami is in trouble if Butler doesn’t play, and there is a key trend to know for this matchup if the odds shift further toward the Bulls.

This season, the Heat are an NBA-worst 1-9 against the spread as home underdogs, and they’re trending in that direction if Butler and Rozier can’t play on Friday night. 

Chicago looked lethal on Wednesday, shooting the lights out from beyond the arc (11-for-26) while keeping Trae Young in check for Atlanta.

The loss of Caruso is massive, but the team has other wings and guards (Javonte Green, Ayo Dosunmu) that could give Tyler Herro trouble in this one. Herro can fill it up, but he struggled with his efficiency as the No. 1 option on Wednesday with Butler limited – shooting just 9-for-27 from the field. 

I think the time to jump on Chicago is now, as even if Butler does try to tough it out, he’s going to be at much less than 100 percent.

CJ McCollum OVER 23.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

CJ McCollum has been asked to carry a major load, shooting 17 or more shots in 13 straight games for New Orleans with Brandon Ingram dealing with an injury.

Now with Zion out, McCollum should pick up the scoring slack. Over this 13-game stretch, CJ is averaging 27.0 points per game, clearing 23.5 points in 10 of those matchups, including seven in a row.

I’m shocked this number is as low as it is, especially since Ingram was only able to play 25 minutes in Tuesday’s loss to Los Angeles. If the star forward is still on a minute limit, New Orleans has to rely on CJ for offense. 

As long as the usage is there, McCollum should soar past this number on Friday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.