Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Darius Garland and Kyrie Irving)

Two playoff series are on the line on Friday night, but will we get more action and those two great words… Game 7? 

I’m expecting one of these No. 4 vs. No. 5 playoff matchups to go the distance, and there are a couple of player props that I’m diving into on Friday as well. 

The Dallas Mavericks are heavily favored to close out the Los Angeles Clippers at home in Game 6, but things are much different in the Eastern Conference with the Orlando Magic favored at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers. 

Buckle up, because there’s a lot at stake on Friday, including our NBA Best Bets:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 343-331-13 (-6.12 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 968-889-21 (+33.82 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Darius Garland UNDER 26.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit
• Orlando Magic Moneyline (-170) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 0.5 unit
• Kyrie Irving OVER 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit

Darius Garland UNDER 26.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit

Darius Garland had by far his best game of the playoffs in Game 5, scoring 23 points while dishing out five dimes and grabbing five rebounds. It’s the only game in this series in which he’s cleared 26.5 points, rebounds, and assists.

I’m going to fade Garland on the road here, as he’s been awful in his four road playoff games in his career:

Darius Garland 2023 Playoff Stats

• Game 3 vs. New York: 10 PTS (4-for-21 FG), 3 ATS, 2 REB – 15 PRA
• Game 4 vs. New York: 23 PTS (9-for-16 FG), 10 AST, 2 REB – 35 PRA

Darius Garland 2024 Playoff Stats

• Game 3 vs. Orlando: 5 PTS (2-for-10 FG), 6 AST, 3 REB – 14 PRA
• Game 4 vs. Orlando: 14 PTS (5-for-11FG), 6 AST, 3 REB – 23 PRA

Garland hadn’t eally been aggressive in this series, taking 11 or fewer shots in four straight games until attempting 16 in Game 5. Maybe that’s a sign that things will change, but I’m not buying it on the road. 

Orlando Magic Moneyline (-170) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 0.5 unit

The Cavs-Magic series is going the distance. 

That’s right, I’m calling my shot – and betting it as well. 

Orlando has covered the spread in three straight games in this series, dominating Cleveland in both games at home. The old saying that role players play better at home has been true for the Magic, who dominated the bench scoring in both Games 3 and 4. 

On the season, the Magic are a league-best 21-6 against the spread when favored at Kia Center, and Cleveland has been shaky for three games now, even though it closed out Game 5 with a one-point win. 

Franz Wagner had to play better (3-for-11 in Game 5), but he did put up 34 points in Game 4 in Orlando. 

The Cavs have struggled on the road all season, going 10-13 against the spread as road dogs. They also haven’t been nearly as dominant as the first couple of games of the series, which is worrisome for a team that intentionally set up a meeting with the Magic in the first round by losing at the end of the season. 

I’ll gladly take Orlando to force Game 7 on Friday. 

Kyrie Irving OVER 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit

Dallas guard Kyrie Irving has stuffed the stat sheet this postseason, picking up 10 or more rebounds and assists in four of his five games against the Los Angeles Clippers. 

He fell short with nine rebounds and assists in Game 2, but Kyrie is still averaging 5.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game in the series. 

With Dallas at home and in a position to close things out, I expect Jason Kidd to ride with Irving and Luka Doncic as far as he can in Game 6. The Mavs won in a blowout in Game 5 – limiting Kyrie to a series-low 35:25 of playing time, yet he still finished with 10 rebounds and assists. 

Trust him to keep it going at home.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.