Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for DeMar DeRozan, Tyrese Haliburton)

March is upon us, and I'm on a HEATER.

After a sweep on Thursday night, I've hit 15-of-19 bets in the NBA this week, and Friday's slate is another day to keep that rolling.

Tonight, I'm looking at seven plays on the slate, including four different prop bets. Let's talk some ball.

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 242-226-10 (-0.54 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 867-784-19 (+39.40 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Detroit Pistons +9 (-110) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 0.5 unit
• Tyrese Haliburton OVER 29.5 Points and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Jonas Valanciunas UNDER 21.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Golden State Warriors -3 (-108) vs. Toronto Raptors – 0.5 unit
• DeMar DeRozan OVER 22.5 Points (-140)
• Kyle Kuzma OVER 19.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Philadelphia 76ers-Charlotte Hornets UNDER 214 (-112) – 0.5 unit

Detroit Pistons +9 (-110) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 0.5 unit

Don’t sleep on the Detroit Pistons here as nine-point dogs. 

Detroit would have covered or pushed each game if the line was set at nine points against the Cavs this season – losing by seven, eight and nine – and Cleveland hasn’t exactly dominated against the spread on the road in the 2023-24 campaign.

Despite being one of the hottest teams in the NBA, the Cavs are just 7-8-1 ATS this season as road favorites. As for the Pistons, they are 12-10-1 ATS as home dogs, a sign that they may be able to keep this game close. 

Cleveland lost in overtime to Chicago on Wednesday, and the team could be without both Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert (questionable). I’m riding with Detroit to hang around at home. 

Tyrese Haliburton OVER 29.5 Points and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit

I took this play on Wednesday night for Tyrese Haliburton, and he came through with a 17-point, 13-assist night. 

While oddsmakers are once again setting the number at 29.5, the odds are much different from the -145 it was for him to hit the OVER on Wednesday. 

New Orleans is beatable in the assist game (ranking 19th in opponent assists allowed per game), and Hali hasn’t shot well out of the All-Star break (45.8 percent from the field, 31.0 percent from 3). He’s in line for some positive regression – at least from beyond the arc. 

Don’t forget, the All-Star guard is averaging 33.0 points and assists per game this season.  

Jonas Valanciunas UNDER 21.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

There is no other play than to fade New Orleans Pelicans big man Jonas Valanciunas on Friday night. 

To combat Indiana’s speed and desire to run, Pelicans head coach Willie Green played Valanciunas only seven minutes on Wednesday night, and the big man finished with three rebounds and no other stats.

At 21.5, this number is insanely high if the Pels employ the same strategy, and it’s worth noting that JV has failed to clear this line in four of his last seven games regardless of minutes. 

I’ll gladly take the UNDER on Friday and hope he has a reduced role to make this a no-sweat bet. 

Golden State Warriors -3 (-108) vs. Toronto Raptors – 0.5 unit

There are a few key trends in this game that I love, and with the Golden State Warriors expected to play Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Chris Paul on the second night of a back-to-back, the team may be undervalued in Toronto. 

Golden State is 9-4 ATS as a road favorite and 7-4-1 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back while the Raptors enter this game with just a 5-8 ATS record as home underdogs. 

The Warriors come into this game 8-2 in their last 10 and the team has been humming since Steve Kerr changed his rotation. While Brandin Poziemski (doubtful) is likely to miss this game, I still believe in Curry (who broke out of a shooting slump last night) and company to beat a Toronto team that is unlikely to even compete for a play-in spot over the final months of the season. 

DeMar DeRozan OVER 22.5 Points (-140)

This may be my favorite prop of the night, as DeMar DeRozan takes on the Milwaukee Bucks, who are on the second night of a back-to-back. 

The Bucks have been vulnerable defensively all season long, and DeRozan had 41 against them the last time these teams faced off. 

DeMar is putting together quite the stretch of games as of late, averaging 27.1 points per game in February while shooting 46.9 percent from the field. He’s cleared 22.5 points in nine of his last 10 matchups. 

He’s worth a shot – even though we have to lay some juice on this prop. 

Kyle Kuzma OVER 19.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

This is a straight usage play for Washington Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma, who scored 27 points in his other meeting with the Los Angeles Clippers this season. 

Kuz has attempted 19.0 shots per game since the start of February, averaging 22.1 points per game over that stretch. He’s scored 20 or more points in 37 of 57 games, including eight of 10 in the month of February. 

The Clippers are 13th in the league in defensive rating, but if Kuzma is going to push 20 shots, it’s hard not to take him to score 20 points. On the season, he’s averaging 22.0 points per game while shooting 45.8 percent from the field.

Philadelphia 76ers-Charlotte Hornets UNDER 214 (-112) – 0.5 unit

I absolutely love the UNDER in this game, especially with it moving two points from 212 to 214. 

The Charlotte Hornets’ offense has been terrible as of late, falling short of this total in four straight games. The team scored less than 100 points in each of those matchups, and now it takes on a Philly team that is No. 12 in the league in defensive rating. 

Philly has also struggled on offense without Joel Embiid, and the team has scored 104 or fewer points in five straight games. Now, Kelly Oubre is questionable, potentially putting the team down another key scorer that Philly needs to support Tyrese Maxey. 

Sure, Charlotte struggles on defense, but the team has done enough on that side of the ball – struggling to score without LaMelo Ball – to keep going UNDER this number. 

Not only that, but the Sixers and Hornets are No. 16 and No. 19 in pace this season, so don’t be shocked if this game turns into more of a slog. 

I have to go UNDER with both of these teams down their stars.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.