Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Domantas Sabonis, Nuggets-Heat)

Wednesday's NBA action brings nine games, including an NBA Finals rematch, and I have a bet for the Denver Nuggets-Miami Heat game -- the second matchup between those teams this season.

It's been a middling week so far, so why not turn things around with a strong hump day?

There are two sides and one-player prop that I have in mind to bounce back from a rough first two days this week.

Let's break them down:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 270-253-12 (-0.99 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 895-811-20 (+38.94 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Orlando Magic -7 (-112) vs. Brooklyn Nets – 0.5 unit
• Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-112) vs. Miami Heat – 0.5 unit
• Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+185) – 0.5 unit

Orlando Magic -7 (-112) vs. Brooklyn Nets – 0.5 unit

These teams have not played a single game that was decided by less than 20 points this season, with Brooklyn winning the first two meetings before Orlando took the Feb. 27 matchup by 27 points. 

It wouldn’t shock me, as the Nets have struggled on the road this season, going 9-13 against the spread as road underdogs. 

Meanwhile, Orlando is an NBA-best 13-3 against the spread when favored at home.

Brooklyn has played well as of late in terms of net rating – No. 9 in the league in its last 10 games – but I can’t trust the team against the Magic here. 

Orlando has proven time and time again that it is a must-bet at Kia Center, going 21-9 straight up at home. As long as Paolo Banchero doesn’t struggle from the field (6-for-20 in his last game), the Magic should be able to run away with this one. 

Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-112) vs. Miami Heat – 0.5 unit

Miami is still down Tyler Herro, which severely limits the team’s offensive ceiling against a tough Denver team.

While the Nuggets are just 13-18-1 against the spread on the road this season, I have a hard time backing the Heat, who come into this game just 1-6 against the spread as home dogs. 

Nikola Jokic did not play well in the last meeting with the Heat, yet the team was still able to come away with a win in a defensive-minded game. 

Miami is going to try to slow things down and play a low-scoring matchup, but the Nuggets have been hot as of late, winning nine of their last 10 games to pull into a tie for the No. 1 seed in the West. 

Denver looks to be peaking at the right time while Miami is coming off a loss as an 11-point favorite at home against Washington. I can’t trust the Heat in this spot. 

Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+185) – 0.5 unit

Betting on Domantas Sabonis to record a triple-double has been one of my favorite bets all season long, and tonight is no different.

Sabonsi had 16 points, 20 rebounds and 12 assists in his last game against the Los Angeles Lakers, and he’s fallen one or two assists shy of a triple-double in three straight games.

The Sacramento Kings big man leads the league in triple-doubles, so getting him at nearly 2/1 feels like a solid bet here. Plus, these teams have filled up the stat sheet in their matchups.

They’ve combined for 259, 235, and 250 points in the three meetings so far this season. More points means more chances for Sabonis to rack up assists, which is all we’re really betting with this prop.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.