Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Anthony Edwards, Khris Middleton)

Monday’s NBA playoff action was insane, especially with the endings of the New York Knicks-Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers-Denver Nuggets matchups that featured some massive game-winning shots. 

It was also a massive bounce-back day in our NBA Best Bets, hitting three of our props to get back on the positive side for the first time in the playoffs. 

Hopefully, with more Game 2 action on Tuesday night, we can use the matchups from the opening games of the series to better inform our plays. 

I’m all in on Anthony Edwards on Tuesday night, but that’s not the only play to make for this slate:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 331-315-13 (-4.09 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 956-873-21 (+35.85 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Anthony Edwards OVER 25.5 Points (-112) – 0.5 unit
• Khris Middleton OVER 32.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-112) – 0.5 unit
• Jusuf Nurkic UNDER 23.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-122) – 0.5 unit

Anthony Edwards OVER 25.5 Points (-112) – 0.5 unit

Edwards went nuclear in Game 1, scoring 33 points on 14-of-24 shooting from the field, and it shows that he’s back in his playoff form once again. 

In his postseason career, Edwards is averaging 28.5 points per game, and last season he averaged 31.6 points per game against Denver in the first round. 

Edwards took 22.8 shots per game throughout that series after averaging 19.5 per game in the regular season, and we’re already seeing an uptick in usage in these playoffs as well. 

The Suns don’t necessarily have a lockdown defender to throw on Edwards at all times (especially if they start Grayson Allen), so I expect the All-Star guard to keep scoring at a high rate tonight. 

Khris Middleton OVER 32.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-112) – 0.5 unit

Khris Middleton had a massive Game 1 for the Milwaukee Bucks, scoring 23 points and grabbing 10 rebounds in the win. He also dished out four assists, easily clearing this number. 

With Giannis Antetokounmpo (doubtful) likely to sit again – especially with the Bucks up 1-0 in the series – Middleton could be in line for a major role again on Tuesday.

The former All-Star only needed to take 14 shots to score 23 points on Sunday night, but Damian Lillard (24 shots) was on fire in the first half. I could see these shot numbers evening out a bit, especially if the Indiana Pacers decide to change their game plan to slow down Dame. 

Either way, Middleton has been great on the glass and as a rebounder (averaging 6.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game in his last 12 regular season games), so he has a high floor for this prop tonight. 

Jusuf Nurkic UNDER 23.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-122) – 0.5 unit

Jusuf Nurkic finished Game 1 of this series with nine points, four rebounds, and one assist in 26:37 of playing time, building off of a tough regular season against these Wolves. 

In three games during the regular season, Nurkic averaged 6.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game against Minnesota, clearing this prop just one time. 

Rudy Gobert is certainly a tough matchup for Nurk, and his rebounding numbers against the Wolves (five, 15, five, and four) are extremely concerning. 

If Nurkic can’t get to the glass to push for double-digit boards, I don’t see him clearing this prop on Tuesday night. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.