Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Immanuel Quickley, Jalen Brunson)

Tuesday night is for NBA props!

After a tough Monday night showing, I'm looking to bounce back with four plays -- including three player props -- for the action on April 2.

There are a few point guards that I believe are undervalued on Tuesday night, and one sharpshooter to target in a favorable matchup.

Let's break down the plays, which include a moneyline pick for the Golden State Warriors-Dallas Mavericks matchup, tonight:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 307-283-13 (+1.51 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 932-841-21 (+41.46 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (-108) vs. Golden State Warriors – 0.5 unit
• Immanuel Quickley OVER 30.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Duncan Robinson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Jalen Brunson OVER 5.5 Assists (-166) – 0.5 unit

Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (-108) vs. Golden State Warriors – 0.5 unit

Golden State has struggled to win and cover the spread at home this season, going 18-19 straight up and 15-21-1 against the spread. 

I don’t think I can trust this Warriors team – that could be down a key offensive player in Jonathan Kuminga (questionable) – to beat Dallas, who is rolling at the moment.

Over their last 10 games, the Mavs rank No. 2 in the league in net rating, playing the No. 8 offense and No. 3 defense in the league over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 10th in net rating but just 15th in defensive rating.

While Golden State won the last meeting between these teams, Dallas didn’t have Luka Doncic for the whole contest. The Mavs, if this line moves, could be looking at one of the most winning trends all season, as they are 17-4 ATS as road favorites.

Either way, taking Dallas as a pick’em in this game is a great bet. 

Immanuel Quickley OVER 30.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit

Since the All-Star break, Immanuel Quickley is averaging 20.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game, clearing 30.5 points, rebounds, and assists in eight of his last 12 games. 

While he’s missed some time for the Raptors as of late (personal reasons), I expect Quick to jump right back into a massive role with Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, and Gary Trent Jr. all ruled out tonight against the Los Angeles Lakers. 

Quickley’s usage should spike, and it’s worth noting that he’s taken 16.2 shots per game since the break. If he sees more than that, I’d be shocked to see him fall short of this prop. 

Duncan Robinson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-125) – 0.5 unit

Duncan Robinson terrorized the New York Knicks earlier this season, hitting five 3-pointers on 11 attempts, a familiar scene for Knicks fans. 

In his last 10 regular season games against the Knicks, Robinson has made three or more shots from beyond the arc seven times. 

New York allows 12.6 made shots from beyond the arc per game, but Robinson’s usage from deep – 8.5 attempts per game since the start of March – makes him a great bet in this prop.

Jalen Brunson OVER 5.5 Assists (-166) – 0.5 unit

I’m surprised to see this number at 5.5 for Jalen Brunson, who picked up eight dimes the last time the Knicks faced Miami. 

The Heat are likely going to try to force the ball out of Brunson’s hands, but he’s been a willing passer, putting up six or more dimes in seven straight games – including a matchup where he scored 61 points. 

Miami is middle of the pack (15th) when it comes to opponent assists per game, and I think Brunson will be looking to pass out of traps or double teams a lot tonight. Take the OVER at this discounted number.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.