Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jalen Brunson, Bobby Portis)

What a night of basketball we have ahead of us on Thursday!

Two massive Game 6 matchups take place in the Eastern Conference as the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers look to close out their respective series and advance to the second round.

But, the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers aren’t going away, as both teams won in Game 5 to keep their seasons alive. 

There are four plays that I’m looking at on Thursday, including three player props on some of the best performers from Tuesday night’s Game 5 action. 

From Tyrese Maxey to Bobby Portis, here’s how to bet on the NBA playoff action tonight:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 343-331-13 (-6.12 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 968-889-21 (+33.82 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Tyrese Maxey OVER 26.5 Points (-122) – 0.5 unit
• Milwaukee Bucks +8 (-110) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit
• Jalen Brunson OVER 7.5 Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit
• Bobby Portis UNDER 12.5 Rebounds (-130) – 0.5 unit

Tyrese Maxey OVER 26.5 Points (-122) – 0.5 unit

Tyrese Maxey has scored over 26.5 points in three of the five games in this series, but he’s yet to do it in a matchup in Philadelphia. 

I think that changes tonight. 

The Knicks have struggled to contain Maxey all series (he’s averaging 32.4 points per game), and the Sixers star was around this prop number all season long, averaging 25.9 points per contest. 

Maxey’s usage has been huge in the playoffs, as he’s taken 21 or more shots in every game while playing 44.9 minutes per game. Since he rarely sits, bettors won’t have to worry about long stretches where Maxey isn’t getting shots. 

Until the Knicks prove they can slow down the All-Star point guard, he’s a must-bet on this points prop. 

Milwaukee Bucks +8 (-110) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit

There is a disturbing trend for the Bucks entering this game, as they are the worst team in the NBA against the spread as a road underdog (4-9), but I’m not going to let that deter me in this game. 

Milwaukee can cover the eight points in this matchup, its veteran leadership of Middleton, Portis, and Patrick Beverley was crucial in Game 5. 

Plus, Haliburton does not look himself in this series, a major concern for the strength of the Indiana offense. 

Looking back at the first two games in Indiana, one went to overtime with the Pacers winning by three, and the other was a 13-point win where Portis was ejected early on for an altercation with Andrew Nembhard. 

If Portis plays, that game could look completely different, and I feel like eight points is a little too many to give an Indiana team that has not been great defensively (No. 30 in points in the paint allowed, No. 24 in defensive rating) this season. 

Plus, if one of the Bucks stars gets ruled in, this line is going to shift drastically. 

I’ll take the eight points now and hope for some positive movement in my favor as the day progresses. 

Jalen Brunson OVER 7.5 Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit

Brunson is averaging 8.4 assists per game in this series, but he’s only cleared this prop two times – racking up double-digit assists in both games that were in Philly. 

The lefty guard has the ball in his hands more than anyone in the NBA this postseason (he’s posted the highest usage rate), which is a great sign for his chances to pick up assists. 

Brunson is fourth in the NBA in potential assists (14.0 per game) so far this postseason, so asking him to pick up eight is certainly possible. 

If Philly tries to get the ball out of his hands, expect Brunson to lean on his teammates in Game 6. 

Bobby Portis UNDER 12.5 Rebounds (-130) – 0.5 unit

Bobby Portis had a monster Game 5, scoring 29 points and grabbing 10 rebounds for Milwaukee, his fourth game this series with double-digit rebounds.

The only game Portis fell short of 10 boards was when he was ejected early on in Game 4. 

Despite that, I still think he’s a fade candidate with oddsmakers jacking his rebound prop up to 12.5 on Thursday night. 

This postseason, Portis has just one game – Game 3 – with more than 12.5 rebounds, and that matchup went to overtime with Portis playing a series-high in minutes. 

During the regular season, Portis averaged 10.1 rebounds per game when Giannis sat, but he only had 13 or more in two of nine contests. 

Even in a must-win scenario for the Bucks, this number is a little high for Portis, who has relied heavily on the defensive glass for his rebounds in this series. I think he gets into double digits, but 12.5 is too high for my liking.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.