Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jaren Jackson Jr., Jazz-Thunder)

Tonight's a smaller slate in both the NBA and my NBA Best Bets column, but we're going to touch nearly all of the five games with a rebound parlay that should provide a nice sweat for a Thursday night.

Plus, there is a prop for Jaren Jackson Jr. that I love, and a team that is a must-bet at home this season.

Let's break down the three picks for Jan. 18!

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 154-140-6 (-4.86 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 779-698-15 (+35.08 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Utah Jazz +3 (-112) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder 
• Jaren Jackson Jr. UNDER 30.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
• The Rebounders Parlay (-106)

Utah Jazz +3 (-112) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder 

As a home underdog this season, Utah is 10-3 against the spread, the second-best mark in the NBA behind the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-0). 

The Jazz are dominant at home against the spread, going 16-4 in 20 games.

Now, the Thunder have a tough task ahead of them as road favorites, where they are just 4-5 ATS this season.

Oklahoma City has seen the market adjust to it being one of the best teams in the NBA this season, but has the market adjusted to Utah’s run? 

I don’t think so. 

Over the last 10 games, the Jazz rank No. 3 in the NBA in net rating, a whole 4.1 points better than the Thunder, who are still No. 7 in that stat. 

This has been a tough road trip for OKC, who is playing a third game in four days. Meanwhile, the Jazz had an off day on Tuesday after their game was postponed against Golden State.

Give me the Jazz to stay hot at Delta Center.  

Jaren Jackson Jr. UNDER 30.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)

I’m going full fade of Jaren Jackson Jr. tonight against the No. 1 defense in the NBA. 

Yes, the Memphis Grizzlies are without Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Marcus Smart, but Jackson Jr. shot just 10-for-40 over his last two games failing to clear this line in both of them. 

Now, he’s supposed to have a big game against Rudy Gobert and company? I’m not buying it.

JJJ has cleared this line in 11 games this season. In 10 of those matchups, he scored 27 or more points. I don’t see that happening against Minnesota, who has held Jackson to 21 and 18 points on a combined 11-of-28 shooting this season. 

The Rebounders Parlay (-106)

• Nikola Vucevic 8+ Rebounds
• Domantas Sabonis 10+ Rebounds
• Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ Rebounds
• Josh Hart 5+ Rebounds

I’ll make this quick about four players I love on the glass tonight. 

Nikola Vucevic 8+ Rebounds

This is a great matchup for Nikola Vucevic, as Pascal Siakam is no longer on the Toronto Raptors roster and center Jakob Poeltl is out with an injury. 

Vucevic is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game on 16.9 rebound chances per game this season. The Raptors are just 18th in the NBA in rebounding percentage this season and 25th over their last seven games. 

Moving this line down from 11.5 to 8+ is an easy bet for Vooch. 

Domantas Sabonis 10+ Rebounds

Domantas Sabonis has grabbed 10 or more boards in 23 straight games, and now he takes on an Indiana team that ranks No. 2 in pace (plenty of possessions) and No. 23 in rebounding percentage. 

We’re moving this line down from 12.5 to 10+. 

Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ Rebounds

Isaiah Hartenstein grabbed 19 rebounds in his lone start against the Washington Wizards this season, and he’s grabbed 10 or more in six straight. 

I’m moving his line down from 12.5 to 10+ against the league’s worst team in rebounding percentage. 

Josh Hart 5+ Rebounds

Josh Hart also gets to face the NBA’s worst rebounding team, and he’s picked up at least five rebounds in eight of his last 10 games, including 14 against Houston on Wednesday night.

We’re moving his line from 6.5 to 5+.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.