Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for LeBron James, Jalen Duren)

There are a ton of playoff implications on the line in the NBA on Monday, and there are player props everywhere to target.

I have two straight up props, three props that I'm parlaying and a spread pick for my favorite matchup on tonight's slate.

It's been a rarity that the "Star Parlay" has made an appearance this season, but I'm dipping back into the well with LeBron James and Jalen Brunson leading the way.

Let's break down tonight's picks:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 278-260-13 (-1.52 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 903-818-21 (+38.42 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Desmond Bane OVER 22.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
• New York Knicks +5.5 (-112) vs. Golden State Warriors – 0.5 unit
• The Star Parlay (+111) – 0.5 unit
• Jalen Duren to Record a Double-Double – 0.5 unit

Desmond Bane OVER 22.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

I am going to take advantage of this lower line for Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane since it’s only his second game back in the lineup after missing time with an ankle sprain.

Bane is averaging 24.4 points per game on the season, and now he gets a crack at a Kings team that is in the bottom five in the league in defensive rating at home. 

The Grizzlies guard shot just 7-for-17 from the field in his return from the injured list, but he put up 22 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder. If Bane continues to see the same usage, I wouldn’t be shocked if he clears 22.5 points tonight. 

New York Knicks +5.5 (-112) vs. Golden State Warriors – 0.5 unit

The New York Knicks are just 8-10-1 against the spread as road dogs this season, but luckily they’re playing a Golden State team that hasn’t exactly been great as a home favorite. 

The Warriors are just 10-17 ATS in that spot – the fourth worst mark in the entire NBA – and I think the Knicks take advantage of that tonight. 

New York played extremely poorly at MSG in the last meeting between these teams, but it didn’t have OG Anunoby (elbow) in the lineup. If Anunoby (questionable) is able to suit up tonight, the Knicks should be in a good spot. 

Why? 

Well, New York is 15-2 straight up with Anunoby and 15-1 straight up when both OG and Jalen Brunson are in the lineup. 

Even though Anunoby’s elbow is clearly not right (he shot 1-for-8 from the field and 0-for-4 from 3 in the win against Sacramento), the forward brings so much on the defensive end for New York. OG has not posted a single game with a negative plus/minus during his time with the Knicks. 

Steph Curry is going to be a tough guard for the Knicks, but the team has another body it can throw at him with Anunoby. Plus, Tom Thibodeau’s rotation will be deeper – meaning Josh Hart doesn’t have to play 47 minutes again. 

I’d be shocked to see the Knicks shoot as poorly as they did last time against Golden State, so I’ll take them to cover the 5.5 points as road dogs. 

The Star Parlay (+111) – 0.5 unit

• Jalen Brunson 25+ Points
• LeBron James 35+ Points, Rebounds and Assists
• Domantas Sabonis 35+ Points, Rebounds and Assists

Jalen Brunson 25+ Points

The Knicks are relying heavily on Brunson to score the ball, and he’s responded with back-to-back 40-point games, attempting 58 shots across those two contests. 

Brunson scored 27 points on 25 shots in his last game against Golden State, and he’s put up 25 or more points in 15 of the last 18 games that he’s started and finished. 

LeBron James 35+ Points, Rebounds and Assists

Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James is doing all it takes to win as of late, averaging 28.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game since the All-Star break (10 games). LeBron has cleared 35+ points, rebounds and assists in all 10 of those games. 

Domantas Sabonis 35+ Points, Rebounds and Assists

I debated another Sabonis triple-double bet, but I’m going to add him to this parlay instead. 

The Kings center has put up 35+ PRA in eight straight games, and he has PRA totals of 51 and 46 in two meetings with the Memphis Grizzlies this season. 

Jalen Duren to Record a Double-Double – 0.5 unit

Jalen Duren could be facing a Boston Celtics team that is resting players on the second night of a back-to-back, including big man Kristaps Porzinigis, who has missed five games in a row. 

Duren had a big game against Boston earlier this season, putting up 15 points and 14 rebounds in nearly 40 minutes. 

On the season, Duren has a double-double in 39 of his 52 games this season, and it’s rare to see him at -135 odds in this prop. I’ll take a shot on this discounted number for the Detroit Pistons big man.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.