Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Nikola Jokic, Knicks-Pacers, Josh Hart)

BetSided's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the NBA for the playoff action on Monday, May 6.
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic.
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

We’re on to the second round in the NBA playoffs, although the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves already have a game under their belt heading into Monday’s action. 

With the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers opening their series tonight, I have a side and two props to bet in this matchup. 

Plus, why not bet on All-Stars Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards in the late matchup on Monday? 

Let’s break down the best bets to place for the NBA playoff games tonight:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • 2023-24 season record: 347-337-13 (-7.49 units)
  • Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 972-895-21 (+32.45 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

  • Indiana Pacers +6 (-110) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit
  • Josh Hart OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-118) – 0.5 unit
  • Tyrese Haliburton OVER 31.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit
  • Nikola Jokic OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+136) – 0.5 unit
  • Anthony Edwards OVER 28.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Indiana Pacers +6 (-110) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit

Based on the series odds, it seems that Vegas believes this is an easier matchup for New York than the first round against Philly. 

Still, there is a major contrast in styles between these teams that could make for an interesting game. 

This season, New York played at the slowest pace in the NBA while the Indiana Pacers clocked in at No. 2 in the league, which means both sides are going to try to control the glass and move the ball at the speed that they’d like it. 

The Knicks may have a slight advantage there since they are the No. 1 rebounding team in the NBA. 

Regardless, New York has played a ton of close games, only winning one game against the Sixers by more than six points. Asking the Knicks – who played just seven players in Game 6 against Philly – to cover this spread could be a tall task, even if Brunson has it rolling from the jump. 

Indiana comes into this game with a 14-11-1 against the spread record as a road underdog, and the Pacers have the offensive firepower to compete with this stifling New York defense. 

After watching the Knicks fail to cover in two games at home in the first round, I’m not sold on them winning this game in a blowout. Close games have been the calling card for Tom Thibodeau’s team the last two postseasons, and I expect another one here.

Josh Hart OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-118) – 0.5 unit

Josh Hart was great from beyond the arc in the first round of the playoffs, hitting three or more shots from deep in four of the six games against Philly.

The key with Hart was his usage – he took 6.2 shots per game from 3 – with the Sixers looking to leave him open after he didn’t shoot the rock well from beyond the arc during the regular season. 

It seems like Hart has found his shot – and his confidence – at this point in the season, and it’ll be interesting to see how the Pacers decide to defend him in this series. Still, 1.5 3-pointers is too low for me not to take in Game 1. 

Tyrese Haliburton OVER 31.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit

Tyrese Haliburton killed the Knicks in the two games he played against them without a minute's restriction, putting up 22 points and 23 assists and 22 points and 12 assists in those matchups. He cleared this total without even counting his rebounds!

Now, Haliburton has looked worse in the playoffs, averaging just 16.0 points and 9.3 assists per game while shooting 29.6 percent from 3.

Despite that, he’s cleared 31.5 points, rebounds, and assists in three of his last four playoff games. I’ll back him to go OVER this number in Game 1. 

Nikola Jokic OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+136) – 0.5 unit

There was an interesting note from Game 1 that I think can help us hit on a plus-money prop in Game 2. 

Nikola Jokic made 2-of-9 shots from beyond the arc in Game 1, settling for a lot of jumpers – something the Timberwolves seemed content with giving him. 

While the 3-point shot isn’t the biggest strength in The Joker’s game, he still shot 35.9 percent from deep this season. I also found an interesting trend for Jokic against Rudy Gobert that feeds this prop as well. 

Since the bubble in 2020, Jokic has faced Gobert 11 times in the regular season. In seven of those games, he’s hit two or more shots from beyond the arc. When you look at the playoffs, Jokic made multiple 3s in three of the five games between these teams last postseason. 

He’s undervalued to be plus money at just 1.5 treys on Monday.

Anthony Edwards OVER 28.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Anthony Edwards has been dominant this postseason, averaging 33.4 points per game and scoring 33 or more points in four of his five games. 

He’s dropped 40 and 43 points in his last two games, killing Denver from the start in Game 1.

Last postseason, Edwards averaged 31.6 points per game, so it’s not new that he’s averaging over 30 again this postseason. 

The key with Ant is his usage, as he’s taken 23 or more shots in each game where he’s cleared this number. I expect him to have a massive role again in Game 2.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.