Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Sixers, Kyrie Irving, Thunder)

Martin Luther King Jr. Day is one of the biggest days in the NBA, as 22 teams are in action with games starting as early as 1 p.m. EST.

So, I have an early edition of today's NBA Best Bets!

A solid 3-2 night on Sunday has pushed us closer to positive on the season, but the important thing is to remember that we still have nearly half of the games of the regular season to go! The key for me is sticking to the process, and what better way to do that on Monday than betting on the Philadelphia 76ers and the process itself...

I have five picks for Monday's action, including a two-team ML parlay that I absolutely love. Let's dive into the picks and keep the momentum from Sunday going:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 148-132-6 (-2.29 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 773-690-15 (+37.65 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 (-112) vs. Houston Rockets
• Boston Celtics-Golden State Warriors ML Parlay (-122)
• Kyrie Irving UNDER 47.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105)
• Immanuel Quickley OVER 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit
• Oklahoma City Thunder ML (-108) vs. Los Angeles Lakers – 0.5 unit

Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 (-112) vs. Houston Rockets

This spread seems to be showing that oddsmakers are confident that Joel Embiid (questionable) will play, but it’s not all the way there after we saw the Boston Celtics laying 16 points against this Houston Rockets team at home. 

The Rockets have really struggled on the road this season, going 5-9-1 against the spread as road dogs, and they are just 4-13 straight up. 

If Embiid plays, I question how Ime Udoka’s team will defend him, as Alperen Sengun is a bit undersized to handle the reigning league MVP in the paint. 

While Philly has not been great as of late (5-5 in its last 10 games), the team is elite at home when favored, going 13-5 against the spread and winning those games by an average margin of 11.8 points per game. 

I’ll take a shot on the Sixers at this number and hope that Embiid is good to go on Monday.

Boston Celtics-Golden State Warriors ML Parlay (-122)

Boston Celtics Moneyline

The Boston Celtics are just 11-9 on the road this season, but they’re in a good spot here as a seven-point favorite against the Toronto Raptors. 

Toronto is down center Jakob Poeltl, which is a major loss against a Boston team that has some elite players at getting to the rim (Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum). 

The Raptors are 0-3 without their center this season, losing by 32 points to Utah in their last game. I’ll take Boston – the best team in the NBA – to win this game. 

Golden State Warriors Moneyline

The Golden State Warriors haven’t been great this season, but this is the easiest matchup they may face all season. 

The Memphis Grizzlies are down Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane and Jake LaRavia on Monday – and the team listed Jaren Jackson Jr. as questionable. 

Give me the Warriors against an undermanned Memphis team. 

Kyrie Irving UNDER 47.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105)

This is a massive number for Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving, who should be in for a big role with Luka Doncic (doubtful) not expected to play on Monday. 

Kyrie had 44 points, rebounds, and assists in his last game (also against New Orleans), and he’s cleared this prop in two of his last four games.

So why go UNDER?

New Orleans ranks No. 6 in the NBA in defensive rating this season, and Irving needed 35 and 44 points in the two games that he went over this total. Plus, New Orleans didn’t play Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, or Zion Williamson in the last meeting between these teams. 

That could totally change the complexion of this game, and the Pelicans had a blowout win (they won by 10 without them) on Saturday night. 

Irving has just four games all season over this number, all coming when he scored 35 or more points. That’s a lot to ask against an elite defense. 

Immanuel Quickley OVER 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit

This has been one of my favorite bets since the Toronto Raptors acquired Immanuel Quickley, and after staying away in his last game, I’m going back to the well with a lower number on Monday. 

Quickley had just 18 PRA in a blowout loss to Utah his last time out, but he’s picked up 28 or more PRA in four of his seven games in Toronto – averaging 18.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. 

I expect a bounce-back showing from Quickley in what should be a more positive game script after the Raptors rested players in a blowout. Quickley has put together some big games against Boston in the past, scoring 23, 38, and 24 points in three of his meetings since the start of 2023. 

Oklahoma City Thunder ML (-108) vs. Los Angeles Lakers – 0.5 unit

I’m not sure we’ll get a better price on this for OKC, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (knee) is currently questionable for this game. 

I’m taking a shot on him playing on Monday against a Los Angeles Lakers team that has dropped seven of its last 10 games. 

The Lakers have been solid at home this season from a win/loss perspective, but they are just 6-9 against the spread as home favorites and are taking on an OKC team that is 6-2-1 ATS as a road dog. 

The Thunder rank No. 2 in the NBA in net rating while the Lakers are down at No. 21. A lot of this bet depends on SGA’s availability, but if he plays, I think OKC gets the win. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.