Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Immanuel Quickley, Kyle Kuzma)
By Peter Dewey
Monday's NBA action is extremely exciting -- especially since we get Part 2 of the New York Knicks-Boston Celtics season series tonight.
I have five different bets for the four-game slate on Monday, including four player props. There are two plays that I like for New York guard Immanuel Quickley -- the current favorite to win the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year award.
Plus, there is a familiar face that we're going back to in the prop market for a points prop after a few down games. We've moved our season record over .500, but still find ourselves down a unit. Let's change that on Monday.
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 33-31-1 (-1.28 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 658-588-10 (+38.67 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- New York Knicks +9 (-108) vs. Boston Celtics
- Immanuel Quickley OVER 17.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
- Immanuel Quickley Alternate Assists 5+ (+550) – 0.2 unit
- Kyle Kuzma OVER 21.5 Points (-105)
- Keegan Murray UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+125)
New York Knicks +9 (-108) vs. Boston Celtics
New York is one of the best teams in the NBA against the spread -- going 5-2-2 this season -- but Boston has five wins by double digits in the 2023-24 season.
So, how should we bet on this game?
I think this line is an overreaction to Boston’s success against subpar competition, especially since the team lost as a favorite against the Philadelphia 76ers and Minnesota Timberwolves last week.
The Knicks are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA (No. 2 in defensive rating), and they showed that earlier this season against Boston. New York lost by four points, and its two best players shot a combined 11-for-43. The team as a whole shot just 37.1 percent from the field.
I don’t see that happening again, and I wouldn’t be scared away by the team being in the second game of a back-to-back. Since Tom Thibodeau took over as New York's head coach, the team is a league best 24-14-2 against the spread on the second night of back-to-backs.
This line is disrespectful to New York. It should cover on Monday.
Immanuel Quickley OVER 17.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
I love this line for Immanuel Quickley, who is the favorite – along with Chris Paul – to win Sixth Man of the Year this season.
Quickley has cleared 17.5 points, rebounds, and assists in seven of his nine games this season, averaging 15.3 points, 3.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game. He put up 34 PRA in the season opener against Boston – shooting 7-for-11 from the field.
There’s a good chance Quickley can push this number on points alone, and he cleared 17.5 PRA in three of his meetings against Boston last season, scoring at least 17 points in each of them.
Immanuel Quickley Alternate Assists 5+ (+550) – 0.2 unit
Since we’re already backing Quickley, I’m going to sprinkle on this alternate line that I believe is mispriced right now at DraftKings.
IQ has recorded five or more assists in three straight games and four of his nine games this season. While he only had four dimes against Boston in New York’s season opener, the team shot just 37.1 percent from the field in that game.
Quickley is averaging 6.8 potential assists per game this season. I’ll sprinkle a small amount on him to hit this number on Monday.
Kyle Kuzma OVER 21.5 Points (-105)
Kyle Kuzma’s points prop has dropped back to where I am comfortable betting on him again, and he hasn’t let us down in our picks this season.
Kuz is coming off two poor shooting games (7-for-17 and 4-for-16), but I am still high on him because of that insane usage. He still found a way to score 17 and 15 points in those games.
On the season, Kuzma is averaging 23.0 points per game on 47.4 percent shooting from the field. He’s taking 19.2 shots per game, so any time I see that volume, a low 20s number is a must must-betbet in the points department, especially in an offense that plays at the fastest pace in the NBA.
Keegan Murray UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+125)
Keegan Murray has breakout potential for the Sacramento Kings, but he has not shot the ball well this season (35.7 percent from the field, 25.8 percent from 3).
He’s made over three shots from deep in four games this season, but over his last five matchups, he’s shooting just 18.9 percent from beyond the arc. The attempts will be there – Murray took 10 shots from deep in his last game – but it’s hard to back him when he’s shooting so poorly.
I can’t trust him to make three shots from deep against a Cavs team that is allowing just 12.3 made 3s per game this season – 15th in the NBA.
Until Murray turns things around, I’m going to fade him at this lofty prop number, especially when they under is set at +125.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.