Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Immanuel Quickley, Thunder, Rockets)

Wednesday brings us a massive slate in the NBA, and after going 4-3 on seven bets -- including hitting two full unit plays -- on Tuesday, I'm back with six more picks for Jan. 3.

We're sticking with some half-unit plays again today (four of those, plus two full-unit plays) as we're looking to keep the season record in the positives.

I want to be able to give out picks for several games on a huge slate like this, and sometimes risking only half a unit is a little easier to get that done.

That being said, I love several picks tonight, including a prop bet for a former Knick -- and a current one -- in some favorable matchups.

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Let's break down tonight's picks!

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 123-105-6 (+1.51 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 748-663-15 (+41.45 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (-110) vs. Atlanta Hawks – 0.5 unit
• Immanuel Quickley OVER 15.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
• New Orleans Pelicans 1H +3.5 (-108) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – 0.5 unit
• Houston Rockets -5.5 (-105) vs. Brooklyn Nets
• Julius Randle OVER 26.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
• New York Knicks 1Q Moneyline (-185) vs. Chicago Bulls

Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (-110) vs. Atlanta Hawks – 0.5 unit

This is a tough back-to-back for OKC, but will we not take them as a pick’em against Atlanta?

As long as SGA, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and others are good to go  – they’re not on the injury report – the Thunder should be favored in my eyes. 

league-bestOKC is a league best 9-3-1 against the spread on the road this season, and the Thunder are 3-0 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back.

Meanwhile, the Hawks are a league-worst 0-8 against the spread as home favorites and 1-12 ATS at home overall. 

I can’t back this Atlanta team in this spot, especially since the Hawks are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, clocking in at No. 27 in defensive rating. 

Immanuel Quickley OVER 15.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Immanuel Quickley played a big role for the Toronto Raptors in his first game with the team, getting the start over Dennis Schroder and playing nearly 29 minutes even though he was in foul trouble in the first half, picking up his fourth foul in the second quarter.

Quickley took 13 shots, shooting 5-for-13 from the field, 2-for-5 from 3 and 2-for-3 from the line. 

He’s averaging 15.0 points per game, and now his role is expanding in a big way on this Toronto team. I expect Quickley’s minutes to rise if he can avoid fouls, and he should push around his season average. He’s worth a shot to go OVER in a feature role. 

This may be one of the few chances we get Quickley at this number if he explodes in Toronto. 

New Orleans Pelicans 1H +3.5 (-108) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – 0.5 unit

This has been a sneaky great bet all season with the New Orleans Pelicans, as they are an NBA-best 25-8-1 in the first half against the spread. 

Meanwhile, Minnesota is just 12-20 against the spread in the first half this season. 

After blowing out the Brooklyn Nets last night, New Orleans doesn’t have any of its Big 3 on the injury report – as they all didn’t have to play much on Tuesday. I think the Pels are undervalued a bit against Minnesota. 

Houston Rockets -5.5 (-105) vs. Brooklyn Nets

I’m fully fading the Brooklyn Nets on the second night of a back-to-back, as the team has covered the spread just one time in its last 11 games. 

The Nets were blown out by the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday night, and the team ranks 27th in the NBA in net rating over its last 10 games. 

Meanwhile, Houston has dominated as a home favorite this season, going 6-2-1 ATS and winning those games by an average margin of 10.2 points per game. 

I can’t get behind the Nets at a shorter number than yesterday (they were +6 against New Orleans). 

Julius Randle OVER 26.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

New York Knicks star forward Julius Randle receives a lot of criticism, but he’s been terrific as of late, and he carried the Knicks with 39 points against Minnesota on Monday. 

Since Nov. 26, Randle has shot at least 40.0 percent from the field and scored at least 20 points in every single game. Over that 18-game stretch, he’s averaging 28.2 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. 

He’s a great bet to score a lot of points tonight with Nikola Vucevic ruled out for Chicago. The Bulls don’t have the interior defenders to slow Randle down tonight. 

New York Knicks 1Q Moneyline (-185) vs. Chicago Bulls

The Knicks are one of the best first-quarter teams in the NBA this season, ranking No. 6 in the NBA with a +6.6 net rating in the opening frame. 

Meanwhile, Chicago is awful on the road in the first quarter – as evidenced by the team’s massive deficit early on Monday against the Philadelphia 76ers. 

The Bulls are dead last in the NBA in first-quarter net rating on the road (-23.7), and they rank 28th in defensive rating as well. 

New York’s new rotation featured a lot of Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, and OG Anunoby in the first quarter on Monday, so I like the team to get off to a strong start at home against a Bulls team playing the second night of a back-to-back.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.