It's been a rough go over the past month in our NBA Best Bets, but we have to trust the process -- as Joel Embiid would say -- after the success we've had over the past few seasons.
Tonight, I am targeting three player props and one money pick for the eight-game slate in the Association.
We're looking to big man Jalen Duren and Tre Jones as my two favorite plays of the night, as I think Jones is criminally undervalued given his recent play in the starting lineup.
We're just one big day from turning around this season, why not Monday night?
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 162-149-7 (-7.61 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 787-707-16 (+32.34 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
- Tre Jones OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-120)
- Jalen Duren to Record a Double-Double (-135)
- Immanuel Quickley OVER 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)
- Boston Celtics Moneyline (-148) vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tre Jones OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-120)
Tre Jones is easily one of my favorite prop targets tonight at this number – even against a Philadelphia 76ers team that is top 10 in the NBA in defensive rating.
Jones is averaging 4.0 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game since entering the starting lineup (nine games), and he’s recorded double-digit assists alone in three of his last four games.
In this nine-game stretch, Jones has cleared 10.5 rebounds and assists five times.
There’s been a direct correlation between Jones’ success and Victor Wembanyama playing, which the No. 1 pick is tonight.
The key for Jones comes in his potential assists, which have jumped when Wemby is on the floor. In his last three games with the rookie playing alongside him, Jones has 12, 11, and 12 assists.
He’s recording 13.6 potential assists over his last nine games, including 16.0 in his last four contests. I love him to go over this prop since he’s rebounded well for a guard averaging 3.1 boards per game this season.
Jalen Duren to Record a Double-Double (-135)
Since returning from an injury, Detroit Pistons big man Jalen Duren has been playing extremely well, showing he’s the team’s top big man.
He’s picked up a double-double in 10 of his 13 games over that stretch, although he finished with just eight points and nine boards on Saturday against this same Milwaukee Bucks team.
A big reason why? Duren had five fouls against the Bucks, which limited his time on the floor to just over 30 minutes. I think the young center could be in a much better position to record a double-double tonight if he can avoid the fouls.
Duren is averaging 14.0 points and 11.4 rebounds per game on the season, and he’s been a beast on the glass, averaging 18.5 rebounding chances per game this season.
With the Bucks loving to push the ball, I think Duren gets back on track with a double-double tonight.
Immanuel Quickley OVER 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)
Immanuel Quickley scored just 12 points in each of his last two games, but he’s got a prime bounce-back matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday.
Quickley has picked up 30 or more PRA in six of his 11 games as a Raptor, averaging 17.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game.
After taking just eight shots in a loss to the New York Knicks, Quickley should be due for an uptick in usage against a much weaker Memphis defense. In the loss to the Knicks, Quickley had 11 assists, a good sign for his usage in the offense.
This number had risen to 31.5 for Quickley in previous games, so I’ll take a shot at buying low on him with Pascal Siakam no longer in the offense.
Boston Celtics Moneyline (-148) vs. Dallas Mavericks
This is a chalky play, but Boston has been solid on the second night of back-to-backs this season, going 4-3 straight up.
The team was playing for this game against Dallas, as it sat Al Horford and Jrue Holiday in the front end of the back-to-back against Houston.
The Mavericks don’t have as much depth as the Celtics, but their top two players – Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving – can certainly compete with Boston’s group. Still, I’m not sold on the narrative that Boston can’t cover the road.
The Celtics are just 7-11-2 against the spread as road favorites, but they’ve covered in five of their last eight games in that scenario.
Since this moneyline price is so short, I’m going to forget the points, but I think this is a prime buy-low spot on Boston after it lost to Denver and didn’t play its best basketball in yesterday’s win over Houston.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.