Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jrue Holiday, Thunder, Lakers-Suns)

The NBA's In-Season Tournament is back on Friday night with the second day of group play, and there are plenty of bets to dive into in the nine-game slate.

I'm eyeing a variety of plays tonight, and yesterday we got ourselves back to .500 on the year. It's been a slow start, but I'm looking to this Friday card to put us in a good spot for the rest of the season.

I have a player prop parlay -- focused on Jrue Holiday and the Boston Celtics -- as well as my favorite moneyline, total, and prop pick this evening.

Nine games, four picks ... four winners? Let's hope so.

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 27-27-1 (-1.88 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 652-584-10 (+38.06 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Boston Celtics Same-Game Parlay (-165)
• Phoenix Suns First Half ML (-148) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
• Oklahoma City Thunder ML (-125) vs. Sacramento Kings
• Charlotte Hornets-Washington Wizards OVER 239.5 (-112)

Boston Celtics Same-Game Parlay (-165)

We’re laying some juice with this parlay, but I’m confident in both of these plays at the reduced numbers. I am worried about a potential blowout – which led me away from Jrue Holiday's normal PRA prop. 

Brooklyn is sitting Cam Thomas, Ben Simmons, Nic Claxton, and Cameron Johnson in this game, while Al Horford is out for Boston. 

Kristaps Porzinigis UNDER 10.5 Rebounds

Even with Horford out, I’m not sold on Kristaps Porzingis hitting the glass at a high level in this game. 

The former lottery pick has more than eight rebounds in just one game this season, and he’s averaging just 6.7 boards per game. He’s failed to pick up double-digit boards in any game in the 2023-24 season.

Porzingis’ minutes don’t depend on Horford, as we’ll likely just see more of Luke Kornet in this contest – while KP’s minutes stay where they usually are. 

I’m moving this line from 8.5 to 10.5 to give us a little more breathing room in the parlay. 

Jrue Holiday 20+ Points, Rebounds and Assists

Holiday has cleared 20+ points, rebounds, and assists in five of his seven games this season, and he’s done it in five of his last six after a rough season opener.

The Boston offense struggled last game (Holiday had 22 PRA), but the team is in a prime bounce-back spot against a shorthanded Brooklyn team that is just 24th in the league in defensive rating this season. 

Boston put up 124 points against the Nets last weekend, and Holiday finished that game with 18 points, nine rebounds, and 10 dimes. I love him to go OVER this number tonight.  

Phoenix Suns First Half ML (-148) vs. Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers are just 27th in the NBA in net rating this season, and the team is also 0-8 against the spread in the first half of games this season. 

Now, with Anthony Davis questionable, I’m concerned about the Lakers on the road against a Phoenix team that will have Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal in the lineup tonight. 

Los Angeles needed a massive fourth quarter to beat Phoenix in the last meeting between these teams, so I’m just going to look at the first half where the Lakers have struggled. 

Meanwhile, the Suns are no. 9 in the NBA in first-half net rating (Los Angeles is 30th). Just take Phoenix to be leading at the break. 

Oklahoma City Thunder ML (-125) vs. Sacramento Kings

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 6-2 against the spread this season, and the team is just a short favorite in this game. 

I’m going to throw out the points and simply take the Thunder to win this game. 

The Sacramento Kings are 1-3 since De’Aaron Fox went down with their only win coming by three points against the Portland Trail Blazers. 

The team simply doesn’t have an easy fix to replace Fox’s scoring and playmaking abilities, and it’s made it tough on the team’s offense, scoring 101 or fewer points in all three losses. 

OKC, on the other hand, is No. 7 in the NBA in offensive rating this season. The team is going to score at a high level, and that’s a major issue for the Kings if their offense still suffers. 

Charlotte Hornets-Washington Wizards OVER 239.5 (-112)

These are two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 28th and 29th in defensive rating this season. However, they are also two solid offenses, ranking 12th and 13th in offensive rating. 

That leads me to an OVER bet – even with the total in this game pushing 240 points.

The Washington Wizards have been money at clearing this total, just look at the combined total points in their last few games, including a 248-point showing between these two teams on Wednesday. 

• Wizards-Hornets: 248
• Wizards-Sixers: 274
• Wizards-Heat: 235
• Wizards-Hawks: 251

Washington is content with playing fast (No. 1 in pace) and it doesn’t defend. The Charlotte Hornets are also fourth in pace, so I’m preparing for a track meet – similar to Wednesday – with both teams scoring big. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.