Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Kawhi Leonard, Knicks, Warriors)

A loaded 12-game slate in the NBA on Wednesday night means that there are hundreds of bets to choose from, but I’ve narrowed down four of my favorites for March 27. 

There are a ton of key players that are listed as questionable – or on a team that has not submitted an injury report for tonight since this is the second game of a back-to-back. So, I’ve tried to stay away from those games with tonight’s picks. 

• Victor Wembanyama (questionable)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (no injury report, dealing with quad injury)
• Anthony Davis (no injury report yet, second night after double OT)
• LeBron James (missed last night with an ankle injury)
• Deandre Ayton (questionable)
• Dejounte Murray (questionable)
• Cade Cunningham (questionable)
• Anthony Edwards (questionable)
• Lauri Markkanen (questionable) 
• Bradley Beal (questionable) 
• Jamal Murray (questionable) 

What a list. 

Now, I am still targeting a prop in the Denver Nuggets Phoenix Suns game, as I don’t think it’s dependent on Murray’s status. Let’s dive into the plays after a 4-1 showing on Tuesday night:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 296-274-13 (+0.95 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 921-832-21 (+40.89 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Kawhi Leonard OVER 23.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
• New York Knicks -13.5 (-108) vs. Toronto Raptors – 0.5 unit
• Golden State Warriors +4.5 (-108) vs. Orlando Magic – 0.5 unit
• Michael Porter Jr. OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-125) – 0.5 unit

Kawhi Leonard OVER 23.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

The Los Angeles Clippers have Russell Westbrook back in action, but I still like this discounted number for Kawhi Leonard, who has scored 24 or more points in nine of his 17 games since the All-Star break, averaging 22.8 points per game.

Leonard’s usage is pretty steady. He’s taken at least 15 shots in all but two of those games, and he had 26 points on 18 shots in the team’s last loss to Indiana (Russ’ first game back). 

With the Clippers desperately needing a win, I’ll take a shot on Kawhi to have a big game against a Philadelphia team that could be down a key wing defender in Kelly Oubre Jr. (questionable). 

New York Knicks -13.5 (-108) vs. Toronto Raptors – 0.5 unit

If there’s one thing the New York Knicks have done this season, it’s take care of business against teams they are supposed to beat, especially on the road. 

New York is an impressive 9-3-1 against the spread as a road favorite, and the team has dominated under .500 teams all season, going 25-2 straight up. 

Toronto is one of the teams that the Knicks have had no trouble with, winning by 13, 6, and 26 in their three meetings this season. 

The Raptors are shorthanded right now, as they’re expected to be without Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Jakob Poeltl (four starters) in this game. That’s been a key issue for the team’s struggles, as Toronto has dropped 11 consecutive games. 

I’d be shocked to see the Knicks put a clunker on the road, especially with the Raptors at less than full strength. Toronto is a putrid 5-14 against the spread as a home underdog, and the Knicks have a massive edge in net rating over the last 10 games (No. 6 vs. No. 28 in the league). 

Plus, Mitchell Robinson (upgraded to questionable) could return for New York in this one. 

Lay the points with the Knicks in this matchup. 

Golden State Warriors +4.5 (-108) vs. Orlando Magic – 0.5 unit

There are competing trends in this game, as the Orlando Magic are the best team in the NBA as home favorites (16-4 against the spread) while the Golden State Warriors are impressive as road dogs, going 11-7 ATS. 

I’m a little concerned about Orlando here, who lost as a home favorite to the Sacramento Kings in its last game. The Magic have been surging in the Eastern Conference standings, but it may be due to a weak schedule over the last month. 

Here’s a look at Orlando’s wins since the All-Star break: 

• Cleveland Cavaliers
• Detroit Pistons (twice)
• Brooklyn Nets (twice)
• Utah Jazz
• Charlotte Hornets (twice)
• Washington Wizards
• Toronto Raptors (twice)
• New Orleans Pelicans

The team has lost games to New York, Indiana, and Sacramento (all over .500 teams) in that stretch while only beating two teams that are over .500 – and the Cavs game came with Donovan Mitchell out. 

Essentially, Orlando has faced six of the worst teams in the NBA over the last month or so to pick up 10 of these 12 wins. I’m not sold on the team covering this number against a playoff-hungry Warriors team. 

Golden State needs this game to keep Houston at bay – the Rockets are just one game back of the Warriors for the No. 10  seed – and the Warriors have been an impressive road team this season, ranking fourth in offensive rating, 11th in defensive rating, and sixth in net rating.

This is the second night of a back-to-back for Golden State, but the team has thrived in that spot this season, going 8-5-1 against the spread. 

Don’t be shocked if the Warriors cover the 4.5 points in this matchup. 

Michael Porter Jr. OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-125) – 0.5 unit

Michael Porter Jr. has been on fire from 3-point range as of late, hitting three or more shots from beyond the arc in nine of his last 13 games. 

The Denver Nuggets sharpshooter is averaging 3.2 made 3s per game on 6.7 attempts over that 13-game stretch (47.1 percent from 3). If Jamal Murray or Aaron Gordon sits in this game, MPJ could be in line for a bigger role in the Denver offense – which would make it even easier for him to get the attempts necessary to hit this prop.

Speaking of attempts, MPJ took 12 shots from deep in his last meeting with the Suns, making four of them, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him have a big game against a Suns team that ranks 23rd in the NBA in 3-pointers allowed per game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.