Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for LeBron James, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)

It's a new week in the NBA, but I'd love to carry any momentum I can over from last week's picks after going 24-10 over seven days, including a 5-1 performance last night.

Prop bets have always been the bread and butter of this column, and they smashed on Sunday, moving us back into the green on the season.

With just six games tonight, I'm not a huge fan of the slate. There are a lot of teams on the second night of a back-to-back and some serious injury questions as well. So, I have two props and one side to consider betting on Monday. Let's break 'em down.

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 251-232-10 (+0.52 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 876-790-19 (+40.47 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Washington Wizards +6 (-112) vs. Utah Jazz – 0.5 unit
• LeBron James OVER 32.5 Points and Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 30.5 Points (-135) – 0.5 unit

Washington Wizards +6 (-112) vs. Utah Jazz – 0.5 unit

The Utah Jazz have been one of the best teams in the league at home – especially as home favorites – going 8-4 ATS in that spot this season. 

However, the team doesn’t have Walker Kessler or Lauri Markkanen in this matchup – a huge loss to the team’s frontcourt. The team is just 5-5 when Markkanen sits this season, but he has not missed a game since the turn of the new year. 

Washington covered against the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday, and the Jazz are a lot different than they were earlier in the season, playing for development more than winning games. 

The team has moved Taylor Hendricks and Keyonte George into the starting lineup, which will bring some growing pains at times for the team. Without Markkanen to provide a consistent scoring presence, I’m worried about Utah holding up here. 

Utah is just 2-8 in its last 10 games and comes into this matchup on a three-game skid. The Jazz have lost outright to Charlotte, the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Golden State Warriors (twice) in four of their last five home games. 

Washington might be able to hang around in this game, especially with Kyle Kuzma currently scoring the ball at a high level (25.2 points per game since the All-Star break). 

Even though the Wizards have dropped 14 straight games, they are still one of the best teams in the NBA as a road dog in the 2023-24 campaign – going 19-12-1 ATS. Don’t be shocked if they cover here. 

LeBron James OVER 32.5 Points and Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit

Over his last 10 games, LeBron James has cleared this prop eight times, dominating both scoring the ball and as a passer. 

The NBA’s all-time leading scorer is averaging 27.0 points and 8.8 assists per game over that stretch, which is better than his season-long numbers of 25.3 points and 7.9 assists per game. 

James has also cleared this prop in one of his meetings with the Oklahoma City Thunder this season, scoring 40 points in that game. 

The key here is James’ increased assist numbers, as he’s put up at least eight dimes in seven consecutive games. Over his last 10, he’s averaging a shocking 15.1 potential assists per game. 

I love LeBron to go OVER this number in what should be a high-scoring game against OKC. Two of the three meetings between these teams this season have finished with over 240 combined points. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 30.5 Points (-135) – 0.5 unit

Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had no problem with the Lakers this season, scoring 33, 34, and 24 points in his three games against them. 

The MVP candidate is on a crazy hot stretch right now, scoring at least 30 points in eight straight games, including clearing this prop in seven of those matchups. 

It’s rare to see SGA – who is averaging 31.2 points per game – down at 30.5 for his points prop. 

This is the second game of a back-to-back for the Thunder, but the MVP candidate has put up 30, 38, 37, and 32 points in his last four games in that spot.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.