With just two games in the NBA on Thursday, I don't have a huge NBA Best Bets column -- but there are still three plays I am making tonight.
Full disclosure: I wanted to bet on Cole Anthony tonight, but with Markelle Fultz's status up in the air, I may wait until closer to game time. Keep an eye out on my Twitter (or X): @peterdewey2, or my BetStamp @peter2dewey for a potential added pick there.
I'm rolling with two player props (half-unit plays) for tonight's slate and a spread pick for the Orlando Magic-Atlanta Hawks matchup.
Let's dive in:
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 25-26-1 (-2.67 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 650-583-10 (+37.28 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
- Andrew Nembhard OVER 0.5 3-Pointers Made (-140) – 0.5 unit
- Clint Capela to Record a Double-Double (+170) – 0.5 unit
- Orlando Magic +3.5 (-108) vs. Atlanta Hawks
Andrew Nembhard OVER 0.5 3-Pointers Made (-140) – 0.5 unit
Andrew Nembhard shot 35.0 percent from beyond the arc last season, but this season he’s down to just 26.1 percent despite attempting at least one 3 in every game.
Nembhard has found the range in his last three games, and he’s shot 5-for-9 from 3 over that stretch. The attempts should be there for Nembhard in what is expected to be a close game between two defenses that rank in the bottom 10 in the NBA (total set at 241.5).
The Bucks rank 23rd in the NBA in 3s allowed per game at 13.1, so I expect Nembhard to get a look from deep tonight. We’re betting on him getting a few shots, because if he does he’s a good enough shooter to knock one down.
Clint Capela to Record a Double-Double (+170) – 0.5 unit
This prop is set at +170, and Clint Capela already has four double-doubles in seven games. He’s got a favorable matchup to do so again tonight against an Orlando Magic team that is without its starting center Wendell Carter Jr.
Orlando allowed 13 rebounds to Anthony Davis in the first game that Carter missed.
Capela has scored 10 or more points five times and grabbed 10 or more boards on five occasions this season, so he’s certainly capable of getting it done in both categories.
I think this is a prime spot for him to get a double-double, especially since Orlando is a top-five defense this season and may force a few more Atlanta misses than normal.
Orlando Magic +3.5 (-108) vs. Atlanta Hawks
A bet for the NBA’s Mexico City Game!
I don’t love laying the points with Atlanta – technically on the road – in this matchup.
The Magic have been elite against the spread to start this season, going 6-2 ATS, and they’re starting to get star-level play from Paolo Banchero, who has scored 22 or more points in three straight games.
The team was priced very similarly even when Banchero was struggling, so I love getting 3.5 points with him returning to his Rookie of the Year form from last season.
Atlanta is 3-4 against the spread this season, failing to cover in both of its games as a favorite.
Both of these teams have been solid – Atlanta is seventh in net rating, Orlando is 12th – but Orlando’s defense has been elite.
The team is No. 4 in the league in defensive rating, posting four games where they allowed fewer than 110 points this season. While Atlanta loves to push the pace (No. 3 in the NBA), Orlando could look to slow this game down (21st in pace).
The Hawks have the No. 4 offense in the league, so this is a strength on strength matchup. I think that bodes well for Orlando getting 3.5 points.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.