Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Magic-Pistons)

February has been a nice change of pace in my NBA

We're on a bit of a heater in the last few days, including a perfect 3-0 sweep on Saturday night. That was huge for the season-long record, as we're now within three units of being back to even on the season.

An awful month of January is behind us, and I'm back with some more picks for Sunday's action with the NBA taking center stage the week before the Super Bowl.

Let's break down these picks, with another sweep on the mind!

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 193-179-8 (-2.86 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 818-737-17 (+37.08 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Orlando Magic -7 (-105) vs. Detroit Pistons
• Jusuf Nurkic OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-145) – 0.5 unit
• Jusuf Nurkic 15+ Rebounds (+330) – 0.5 unit
• Los Angeles Clippers -4 (-112) vs. Miami Heat
• Paul George OVER 25.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
• Jimmy Butler OVER 20.5 Points (-110)
• Minnesota Timberwolves-Oklahoma City Thunder ML Parlay (-138)

Orlando Magic -7 (-105) vs. Detroit Pistons

I love the Orlando Magic to cover this number on Sunday, as the team has been elite as a road favorite in the 2023-24 season. 

The Magic are 4-1 ATS in that spot, and now they get one of the worst teams in the NBA – the Detroit Pistons – who are just 11-9-1 ATS as home dogs. 

The key today? There is a massive difference in these teams defensively, as the Pistons are 29th in the NBA in defensive rating while Orlando ranks fifth. 

The Magic can slow this game down a bit and force the Pistons into the half-court, and the team has not scored at a high level either, ranking 26th in the league in offensive rating. 

On this recent road trip, Orlando has lost by two to Dallas, beat San Antonio by 10, and upset Minnesota. This is a cakewalk game on Sunday. 

Jusuf Nurkic OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-145) – 0.5 unit

There isn’t a much better matchup for Phoenix Suns center Jusuf Nurkic, who is taking on the worst rebounding team in the NBA – the Washington Wizards. 

The Wizards rank 30th in the league in rebounding percentage (45.2 percent), and they allow a league-high 49.6 opponent rebounds per game. 

Phoenix is one of the best teams in the NBA on the glass (sixth in rebounding percentage), and Nurkic is a major reason why, averaging over 10 rebounds per game this season. 

In his first meeting with Washington this season, the Suns big man had 17 rebounds. Plus, he’s picked up at least 11 rebounds in 21 of his 46 games this season. 

Nurkic’s minutes have fluctuated this season from low 20s on some nights to low 30s on others, but the Wizards usually have a traditional center on the floor between Daniel Gafford and Marvin Bagley, which sets up well for Nurk’s playing time. 

He’s also a solid player to ladder…

Jusuf Nurkic 15+ Rebounds (+330) – 0.5 unit

So, we have half a unit on Nurk to go OVER 10.5 rebounds, but why not take him to get 15+ as well? 

As I mentioned, he had 17 boards in his first meeting with Washington, and Nurk has seven games with 15 or more rebounds this season. This is certainly possible, and Washington is the team to take a chance on a ladder like this. 

Los Angeles Clippers -4 (-112) vs. Miami Heat

The Los Angeles Clippers are 10-7 against the spread as road favorites this season, one of the better marks in the NBA, but this bet is more about the team’s opponent on Sunday. 

The Miami Heat are just 0-5 against the spread as home underdogs – the worst mark in the NBA this season – and they struggled to win against the Washington Wizards in their last game. 

Miami had a seven-game losing streak last month, and the team may be outclassed by a nearly fully healthy Clippers team that has dominated as a favorite all season long. Remember, Miami is 29th in the NBA in net rating over its last 10 games. 

I love the Clips as slight favorites on Sunday. 

Paul George OVER 25.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

You can’t buy lower on a player than I am with Clippers star Paul George on Sunday. 

Over his last six games, George has been bad – clearing this number just one time, averaging just 16.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game.

However, I’m trusting the nine-time All-Star’s season-long body of work in this matchup. George is averaging 22.9 points, 5.4 rebound,s and 3.6 assists per game (31.9 PRA). 

He’s also cleared 25.5 points, rebounds, and assists in 33 of his 44 games. Prior to this six-game stretch, he had cleared it in 32 of 38 games. I love the OVER for PG tonight. 

Jimmy Butler OVER 20.5 Points (-110)

I wouldn’t say I’m buying low on Butler, but I’m shocked his points prop is where it is on Sunday. 

Butler has cleared it easily in four straight games, averaging 27.3 points per game over that stretch. 

The Heat star is attempting 14.0 field goal attempts over that stretch, but the bigger key is at the line, where Butler is taking 10.3 free throws per contest. If he can keep getting to the line at a high rate, he’s going to push this line on a nightly basis. 

Plus, Butler is averaging 21.5 points per game on the season. Opponents are taking nearly 23 free throws per game against Los Angeles, and I think Miami’s only chance to stay in this game is a big game from Jimmy. 

I’ll gladly take the OVER.

Minnesota Timberwolves-Oklahoma City Thunder ML Parlay (-138)

A little moneyline parlay to close the night? Let’s get it. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves are in a favorable spot at home, where they are 15-5 straight up when favored and 9-9-2 ATS. 

They take on a Houston Rockets team that they blew out by 27 in their last meeting. The Rockets are awful on the road, going just 6-11-1 ATS as road dogs and 5-16 straight up this season. 

These teams are eerily similar this season, ranking No. 1 (Minnesota) and No. 7 (Houston) in defensive rating and No. 19 (Minnesota) and No. 20 (Houston) in offensive rating. 

However, on the road, the Rockets are just 16th in defensive rating, a massive drop off from when they’re at home. I think that could be the difference in this matchup. 

Oklahoma City Thunder

Ironically, the Thunder and Wolves are tied atop the Western Conference standings, and I expect both to win at home tonight. 

OKC is 17-3 straight up and 14-6 ATS when favored at home this season. The team has a fairly easy matchup with the Toronto Raptors on Sunday, who rank 28th in the NBA in net rating over their last 10 games and are just 7-18 straight up on the road this season. 

The Thunder are too dominant at home this season for me to fade them in this spot.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.