Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Magic, Pacers)
By Peter Dewey
The NBA is BACK after a Monday night off, and we’re in the final stretch for the playoff push with three to four games remaining for every team.
I’ve been analyzing this slate over the last two days, and I’ve settled on a four-pack of plays – all on teams with something to play for at this point in the 2023-24 season.
Let’s break them down!
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 316-293-13 (+0.35 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 941-851-21 (+40.29 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Orlando Magic Moneyline (-148) vs. Houston Rockets – 0.5 unit
- Nikola Vucevic OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 28.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
- Indiana Pacers -13 (-108) vs. Toronto Raptors – 0.5 unit
Orlando Magic Moneyline (-148) vs. Houston Rockets – 0.5 unit
Houston has been great against the spread at home this season, but I am worried about this Rockets team now that it has nothing to play for after getting eliminated due to a five-game skid.
Orlando, who has two remaining games against Milwaukee, has the easiest path to the No. 2 seed of any team trailing the Bucks in the East, and the team has been dominant as a road favorite this season, going 8-3 against the spread.
These teams both rely on the defensive side of the ball, ranking No. 3 – Orlando – and No. 10 – Houston – in defensive rating this season. This should help Orlando, who plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, slow this game down and force Houston to beat it in the half-court.
Given the Rockets' loss of center Alperen Sengun, I’m worried about the team winning a matchup that way. Orlando dominated the Rockets in its season opener, and I expect the team to pick up the win with a ton to gain on Tuesday.
Nikola Vucevic OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit
I’m shocked that this prop is down to 9.5 after Nikola Vucevic cleared his 10.5 rebounds prop in Friday’s matchup with a 13-board game.
The Bulls big man has grabbed double-digit rebounds in 12 of his last 19 games (since March 1), averaging 10.3 rebounds per game over that stretch.
Chicago pulled in 57 total rebounds on Friday, and even if it doesn’t approach that number again, Vooch is going to be planted in the paint guarding bigs like Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson. He should be able to get 10 boards in this one.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 28.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back in action after missing the last four games and six of his last seven with a quad ailment.
The All-NBA guard is one of the best scorers in the NBA this season, averaging 30.3 points per game while shooting 53.9 percent from the field and 36.5 percent from 3.
SGA has scored 29 or more points in 54 of his 71 games this season, so we’re getting a bit of a discount on his prop on Tuesday.
In his matchups with the Kings, the two-time All-Star has gone for 33, 43 and 38 points. He’s going to have a chance for another big scoring game tonight.
Indiana Pacers -13 (-108) vs. Toronto Raptors – 0.5 unit
One of the best trends in the NBA this season has come when the Toronto Raptors are set as home underdogs, as they are just 5-17 against the spread in that spot.
While the Indiana Pacers have not been elite as road favorites (6-7 ATS), this is too good to pass up with Toronto eliminated from playoff contention. The Raptors won’t have Immanuel Quickley, Scottie Barnes, or Jakob Poeltl in this one, leaving the team in a tough spot to score.
The Raptors snapped their long losing streak with a win over the Milwaukee Bucks – and followed that up with a win over Washington – but the team is still shorthanded at this point in the season with Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl injured.
Indiana is just a game up on the Philadelphia 76ers for the No. 6 seed, and this is a near must-win against an inferior opponent with only a few games to play.
The Pacers have been an elite offense all season, and I think they will handle a Toronto team that is 28th in the NBA in offensive rating over its last 10 games.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.