Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Thunder-Pistons, Grizzlies-Pacers)

BetSided's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the NBA for the action on Sunday, Jan. 28.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
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Even though it's Championship Weekend in the NFL, there is still NBA action to dive into on Sunday, and I'll be watching both simultaneously because you can never get too much NBA basketball.

We've seen some crazy scoring performances as of late, and a wild double overtime game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors on Saturday night that helped me avoid one of my worst days of the season.

I'd like to formally thank LeBron James for not only hitting his 3-point prop yesterday (the only prop that hit) but for also hitting two free throws with a second left to win the Lakers the game and salvage my betting day.

I'm hoping to turn around this cold month at some point, so why not a five-game Sunday slate to get us started?

Let's dive into Sunday's plays:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • 2023-24 season record: 178-167-7 (-6.49 units)
  • Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 803-725-16 (+33.45 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

  • Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5 (-112) vs. Detroit Pistons
  • Memphis Grizzlies +9 (-112) vs. Indiana Pacers

Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5 (-112) vs. Detroit Pistons

The Oklahoma Thunder should be able to roll in this game, even though they are just 7-5 against the spread as road favorites this season. 

Detroit lost by 12 to OKC earlier this season, and the team is in a full spiral right now, struggling to compete in the second half against Washington – especially late in the fourth quarter – on Saturday. 

The Pistons led at points on Saturday, but Kyle Kuzma took over late, and Detroit’s offense couldn’t get anything going down the stretch. Even with Cade Cunningham back, the Pistons lacked any offensive firepower against one of the league’s worst defenses. 

Now, the competition is much tougher on Sunday. 

The Thunder are the No. 2 team in the NBA in terms of net rating, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them blow out Detroit in this game. 

The Pistons are just 3-4 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back, and they’ve covered the spread just nine times in 19 tries as a home dog. The team is losing those games by an average margin of over nine points per game. 

Cunningham certainly gives the Pistons a bigger offensive boost, but the team is still 26th in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating this season. OKC is in the top five in the league in both of those categories. 

Trust the Thunder in this matinee matchup. 

Memphis Grizzlies +9 (-112) vs. Indiana Pacers

I think the Memphis Grizzlies, who are on a three-game winning streak, are undervalued against the Tyrese Haliburton-less Indiana Pacers on Sunday afternoon. 

The Grizzlies come into this game with an 11-10 record against the spread as a road underdog, but the Pacers have not been dominant as home favorites, going 7-6-1 ATS in those games. 

This game could be a lot closer than oddsmakers think, as the Pacers struggle to defend this season, ranking just 26th in the league in defensive rating. That should give Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Grizzlies a chance to hang around. 

The team has beaten some good defensive teams (Miami, Orlando) outright as underdogs as of late. 

While the Grizz have been blown out by teams like Minnesota and Chicago, the team also has covered the spread in seven of its last 11 games (all as an underdog). 

Jackson Jr. is going to need to play well, but the Pacers are susceptible to close games – especially without Haliburton – because of how little they defend.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.