Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Tyrese Maxey, Austin Reaves)

The 12-game slate in the NBA on Wednesday night was a profitable one for our NBA Best Bets, as we went 3-1 with our picks to bring the season record to 4-4.

Not the best start in the world, but we’re still plus money after the Oklahoma City Thunder upset pick on Wednesday.

Thursday is just a two-game slate (but we get Inside the NBA so who can complain), similar to Tuesday night’s action. These are going to be great matchups, as Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Philadelphia 76ers – who won’t have James Harden – in the early slate. 

Then, the Los Angeles Lakers host the Phoenix Suns, who have listed Devin Booker and Bradley Beal as doubtful for this game.

I have a pair of player props that I like in these games, as well as the first Peter’s Primetime Parlay of the 2023-24 season!

Let’s keep things rolling after a great Day 2:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 4-4 (+0.34 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 629-561-9 (+40.29 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

If you’re looking to bet on these picks, FanDuel Sportsbook has an amazing promotional offer. New users who sign up with the link below and wager $5 will receive $200 in bonus bets and three months free of NBA League Pass!

NBA Best Bets Today

• Tyrese Maxey OVER 30.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
• Peter’s Primetime Parlay: Bucks vs. Sixers (+125)
• Austin Reaves OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

Tyrese Maxey OVER 30.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)

It’s hard to love a prop for a player more than I love this one for Tyrese Maxey on Thursday night. 

The young guard has something to prove in a contract year, and he has thrived when Harden has been out of the lineup. Last season, Maxey averaged 24.8 points, 5.4 assists, and 3.8 rebounds in 13 games without Harden (34.0 PRA per game). 

He cleared this prop in eight of those 13 games, and I expect him to get a heavy dosage of minutes under new head coach Nick Nurse – especially since Philly isn’t extremely deep this season. 

Maxey has the ability to push 30 points on any night he’s hot, and he has been a solid passer when Harden sits, posting 5+ assists in 10 of 13 games last season without him. 

Patrick Beverley may handle the ball on some possessions, but Maxey is going to run the show tonight. I think he’s the Sixer who benefits the most from Harden sitting out. 

Peter’s Primetime Parlay: Bucks vs. Sixers (+125)

• Giannis Antetokounmpo 20+ Points
• Tobias Harris OVER 11.5 Points
• Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline

Giannis Antetokounmpo 20+ Points

Giannis scored 20+ points in 56 of his 63 games last season, and he missed it in a few games due to injury. So, he’s pretty much a guarantee to get to this number. 

With Khris Middleton expected to be on a minutes limit after playing just 12 total minutes all preseason, I expect a heavy dosage of Giannis and Damian Lillard tonight. 

Tobias Harris OVER 11.5 Points

With Harden out, this is a prime spot to back Tobias Harris. 

In his last 20 games without Harden, Harris has averaged 18.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. While his normal points prop is set at 14.5, I like taking this line down a bit against a solid Milwaukee defense. 

Over that 20-game stretch, Harris has 12+ points in 17 of those matchups. 

Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline

Forget laying the six points with Milwaukee in this spot, as we missed the best number before Harden was ruled out (personal). 

The Bucks were 32-9 at Fiserv Forum last season, and they went 25-8 straight up in 33 games that Middleton appeared in. The Philly bench is thin, so I’m going to fade the Sixers without one of their best players. 

Austin Reaves OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

Back to the well with Austin Reaves? Why not!

This prop has actually dropped a point from opening night, and I think that’s a steal with the Suns playing at a fast pace (11th in the NBA) and potentially down two stars. This spells “get right” for the Lakers and Reaves. 

Reaves had 26 points, rebounds, and assists against Denver despite shooting poorly (4-for-11 from the field) and attempting just two shots from 3. 

The Lakers guard should see a big role in the offense if LeBron James remains limited to around 29-30 minutes per game (according to head coach Darvin Ham), and I expect his scoring to take a jump if he can get to the line a few more times tonight. 

Reaves was impressive on the glass (eight boards) and as a passer (four assists) in Game 1. His props for those in Game 2 are 3.5 (rebounds) and 4.5 (assists) respectively. 

I think that’s undervaluing what he does a little too much, especially since the Lakers need him to score more as well to compete. Don’t be shocked if Reaves pushes 18-20 points in this game to clear this prop with ease.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.