Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Nneka Ogwumike, Sun-Mystics on Friday)

Thursday night was a successful one in our WNBA Best Bets, as two of the three player props that I took came through, moving this season’s record to 3-1 through three days of action. 

Tonight, there are two great matchups in the W, with the Connecticut Sun looking to move to 2-0 on the season when they host the Washington Mystics at 7:30 p.m. EST.

Later in the night, the Minnesota Lynx host the Seattle Storm at 9:30 p.m. EST, the second meeting between these teams in as many games. 

Starting with Connecticut, it’s had some turnover since the 2023 season, but Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner looked as good as ever in the season opener against the Indiana Fever. Bonner scored 20 points on some extremely efficient shooting and Thomas had a patented triple-double in a blowout win. 

Now, the Sun are favored again at home against a Mystics team that is looking to find its identity without superstar Elena Delle Donne this season. Shakira Austin and Stefanie Dolson played well in the team’s season opener, the Mystics covered the spread as major underdogs against the New York Liberty.

Out West, the Storm lost their season opener to Minnesota – partially due to a horrible shooting performance from star Jewell Loyd (3-for-19 from the field). 

They’ll look to bounce back on the road after Napheesa Collier had a double-double in the win in the season opener. With the Storm hoping to jump back up to the top of the West this season, this is a good litmus test for Skylar Diggins-Smith, Nneka Ogwumike, and Loyd to see how they respond. 

Let’s break down some best bets for this action and build on this hot start to 2024!

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 3-1 (+1.38 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Connecticut Sun -9 (-110) vs. Washington Mystics
• Nneka Ogwumike OVER 18.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Connecticut Sun -9 (-110) vs. Washington Mystics

The Sun easily covered in their season opener on Tuesday night, and they’re following up a 2023 season where they posted the No. 2 ATS record in the WNBA. 

I’m worried about Washington’s offense with Shakira Austin on a minutes restriction, as she played just 20 minutes – scoring 13 points – in the season opener. With Delle Donne no longer with the team, the Mystics are replacing a ton of points per game that they lost from the 2023 season. 

The Sun had some serious turnover on their roster, but Thomas, Bonner, DJ Carrington, and Tyasha Harris are all back and played well in Game 1. 

Connecticut has been one of the better teams in the league for several seasons, and it’s going to have a raucous crowd at home in this one. 

I can’t trust the Mystics on the road, even though they covered in their season opener. 

Nneka Ogwumike OVER 18.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

To start the 2024 season, I’m going to stick to half-unit plays on player props as we’re still trying to figure out the usage of some of these players, especially the ones on new teams.

Ogwumike fits that bill in her first season with the Storm, but she was terrific in the season opener against Minnesota, scoring 20 points on 10-of-18 shooting from the field.

One of the WNBA’s best scorers, Ogwumike averaged 19.1 points per game for the Los Angeles Sparks last season on 14.3 shot attempts per game. 

She dominated Minnesota in those games, scoring 27, 20, and 19 points clearing 18.5 points in each matchup. After seeing her usage go up from last season in Game 1 of with the Storm, I wouldn’t be shocked if Ogwumike remains a focal point on Friday. 

Loyd struggled mightily in Game 1, and while she will turn things around, the shot distribution could lean more in Ogwumike’s favor in a matchup she has dominated across multiple seasons.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.