PFL 3: Welterweights & Featherweights odds and best bets
By Jaren Kawada
In an off week from the UFC, the PFL continues the early portion of its season with the opening round for the welterweights and featherweights. Undefeated Russian Magomed Umalatov headlines the event against fellow undefeated contender and Bellator veteran Andrey Koreshkov.
Of the 12-fight card, only four fighters will be returning from last year's PFL season tournaments and 12 former Bellator fighters will be making their debut in the smart cage. In the welterweight division, Umalatov is the only fighter who competed in the 2023 PFL season while Brendan Loughnane, Bubba Jenkins, and Gabriel Braga all return to the 145-pound weight class.
Loughnane, the 2022 PFL champion, attempts to rebound from an upset loss to Jesus Pinedo last season prevented him from making the playoffs in 2023. Braga, the incumbent featherweight runner-up, also looks to bounce back after suffering the first loss of his career in the 2023 PFL Championships.
Amongst the Bellator fighters making their first walk to the smart cage, Logan Storley enters the season with the highest expectations as the former interim welterweight champion. The 170-pound division will also feature the debuts of undefeated prospects Shamil Musaev and Murad Ramazanov.
With the third PFL 2024 season event on deck, preview our three best bets on the card below:
If you want to bet on this weekend's card, click the link below to sign up for an account at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you do, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets when you place your first $5 wager.
PFL 3 Picks and Predictions
- Logan Storley by decision +120
- Kai Kamaka III +120
- Madge/Ward under 1.5 rounds -130
Logan Storley vs. Shamil Musaev prediction
As one of the few former Bellator fighters to join the PFL season format, Storley has a tough opening fight against Shamil Musaev, an undefeated veteran with experience in the KSW and M-1 Global.
Musaev comes in with an impressive record and highlight-reel finishes but has not faced the same level of competition Storley has, who, in his career, has only lost to former champion Yaroslav Amosov. In his four fights in the KSW, Musaev was never lower than a -275 favorite and went 3-0-1 in the promotion.
Contrary to what some may believe in an undefeated Russian prospect, Musaev is not a heavy wrestler and prefers to strike behind his chaotic and wild combinations. Storley, a former NCAA Division I All-American wrestler, has thrived in similar matchups, including his last win over Brennan Ward. Storley executed similar game plans against current UFC fighters Michael Page and Joaquin Buckley.
Expect Storley to shoot for takedowns early and often to neutralize the striking of Musaev. Since signing with Bellator, Storley has recorded six of his 10 wins by decision (60 percent) including three of his last four victories.
The props for PFL are still not out on all sites but is available on FanDuel as of Thursday morning.
Pick: Logan Storley by decision +120
Bubba Jenkins vs. Kai Kamaka III prediction
As impressive as it is that Bubba Jenkins is returning to compete in his third consecutive season with the PFL, the timing is not on the side of the 36-year-old. Entering his 13th year as a professional fighter, Jenkins has already recorded 10 fights since signing with the PFL in 2021 entering April 19.
Kamaka has long been a talented fighter who has routinely fallen short of his potential but as an athletic striker with a decorated wrestling background, the Hawaiian has tended to fall victim to opponents who could out-produce him on the feet. Against wrestlers like Jenkins, Kamaka has tended to fare well.
Likewise, Jenkins' kryptonite for his entire career has been matchups with strikers. Coming off one of the worst knockout losses of his career, Jenkins has now lost four of his seven overall defeats by knockout including two in his last four fights.
Jenkins can firmly take control of this fight on the mats but the way he crumbled against Jesus Pinedo just eight months ago had all the signs of a fighter with nearly two decades of combat sports experience beginning to wear his body down. Kamaka's 12-5-1 record does not sparkle on paper but the Bellator product enters the fight having won three straight with his last two losses highly debated.
Pick: Kai Kamaka III +120
Don Madge vs. Brennan Ward prediction
Brennan Ward may not be a household name but few fighters in MMA embrace violence better. Ward may come from a wrestling background but similar to Justin Gaethje often chooses not to use that skill and prefers to trade in the pocket.
Through 24 professional fights, Ward has gone to a decision just once: his third professional fight. Ward has finished 16 of his 17 victories (94 percent) and fully embodies a "kill or be killed" mentality, losing all seven of his fights inside the distance.
While not as chaotic, Don Madge is a technical Muay Thai striker who will not shy away from the type of fight Ward will bring. In 15 professional fights, Madge has only gone to a decision twice. Madge has similarly finished nine of his 10 wins (90 percent) while getting put away himself in three of his four defeats (75 percent).
Although Madge is making his welterweight debut after a nearly two-year-long layoff, the gameplan will not change for Ward, who will push the pace until he either breaks his opponent or goes down swinging. The near-even price for the fight to not reach the halfway point is great value with two fighters who have rarely seen a third round.
Pick: Madge/Ward under 1.5 rounds -130